Wednesday, April 28, 2010

It's like I keep saying: What goes down must come up. The bad news is that like slumps, surges can't last forever!

[Scroll down for Sunday's dog selections]

I had scheduled a break from blogging for a few days, but the ongoing "correction" after one of the worst dog dives since I started this experiment almost six months ago merits special attention, I think.

The 50x rules set for the 7-dog trial had another great day Tuesday thanks to a baseball DWR of 10/16 = 63% (10/21 overall) that gave us five right picks out of seven.

Casino advocate Mike Shackleford, self-anointed as the online Wizard of Odds, will tell you that winning is lucky and losing is the norm, and if you bet fixed or random values, he'll be right.

But target betting puts you ahead of the game even when you lose more bets than you win, and that's what's happening here.

In the 7-dog trial, right now we can claim 490 wins and 649 losses, which puts the bookies up a whopping 14 percent.

Betting a tight 1 to 5 spread, and even after a succession of wins, we are still $7,900 in the hole, or -5.6% of all betting action since November 1. The only good thing is that at least we're not 14% in the red.

I have been saying for decades that a tight betting spread is long-term suicide even against casino games with a house edge of less than 2%, but I set the 7-dog trial up on a twin track just to see if paybacks exceeding even money would put us ahead over time.

Widening the spread to 1 to 50 has us 30% down from our best win to date, but we are UP 4.7% of total action, and against a 14% bookies' advantage, that is no mean achievement.

Best of all, after yesterday's wins, only two of the seven lines or series are chasing recoveries in the 50x column, and matching and then exceeding the high we hit more than two months ago is looking do-able again.

Here's the latest data:

If you find yourself thinking This can't last, just remember that Mr. Shackleford and his casino clients very much want you to believe that, so you will do the right thing and quit while you are behind.

The last thing their bottom line needs is for punters to start thinking that betting right, rather than randomly, can improve their long-term prospects.

Thursday, April 29 at 9:50am

Checking yesterday's finals started out a thrilling experience then went rapidly downhill!

It was pretty much like the hour I spent in a Reno casino, where after winning fifty bucks in two minutes, I had to fight like crazy to get out with my skin in one piece...

The overall DWR was a healthy 44%, but we managed just three right picks out of seven, and the 5x rules set won just $100.

In the 50x column, unlucky timing meant that all three wins were at $100 bets, and the four losers lined up with big buck bets, one of them at the max.

That's how it goes sometimes.

Today's picks:

MLB 11:20PST 903 Arizona D'backs +135 13
MLB 7:05 907 Milwaukee Brewers +110 7.5
MLB 10:05 912 Detroit Tigers +125 9.5
MLB 11:05 913 Chicago WS +110 9.5
MLB 4:05 917 Oakland As +115 7.5
NHL 6:00 53 Detroit RWs +115 5.5
NBA 5:00 Dallas Mavericks +145 3.5/191

Friday, April 30 at 9:50am

Thursday left 5x at a standstill and 50x suffering the consequences of dropping a winning series all the way back to a minimum bet after a recovery!

Three wins out of seven selections isn't a terrible performance, but some days it's not quite good enough.

I repeat, the rules put in place on November 1 are, for the purposes of the 7-dog trial, sacred and inviolable!

That means that lessons learned along the way are lessons lost.

No complaints, just stating the fact that experience - what's past, in other words - is the best teacher, and adaptability has its place in the real world.

Today's dog picks:

MLB 11:20 951 Arizona D'backs +135 14.5
MLB 4:05 953 NY Mets +130 10.5
MLB 7:15 965 Colorado Rockies +105 7.5
MLB 4:05 971 Oakland As +115 9
MLB 4:05 974 Baltimore Orioles +130 9
MLB 7:10 979 Texas Rangers +130 7
NBA 7:00 554 Milwaukee Bucks +110 2 189.5

Saturday, May 1 at 9:50am

Friday's underdogs delivered an overall DWR of 47% but our 7-dog trial managed just three right picks out of seven.

50x got a nice boost because its two largest bets lined up with winners.

Today's picks:-

Sunday, May 2 at 9:20am

The timing that helped boost 50x to 78% of its best win to date yesterday would be dismissed as "lucky" by some.

In fact, as I have demonstrated here before, each of the seven series in the ongoing 7-dog trial has won and lost about the same number of times as any other.

Numbers rule, as always, and all we are seeing here is the fulfillment or vindication of statistical expectation.

Today's data:

_An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.