Saturday, April 17, 2010

"Saying that your selection process needs to be improved is like saying you have a strategy that will only work if you win all the time. Brilliant!"

Fair comment, I suppose, but all I was trying to get across in the last post was that I want to eliminate subjective choice from the selection process as much as possible.

When I am playing blackjack - my favorite poison when it comes to casino games - I get a great kick out of winning, obviously, but an even bigger one out of knowing that I always play my hand according to strict rules, and set my bet values the same way.

Subjective choices (hunches, whims, gut feelings or whatever) are likely to help the house more than the player, and they have no place in the battle to stay ahead of the game.

Blackjack and Pai-gow are the only table games that require the player to make hand-affecting choices after the cards have been dealt.

In every other game, how much you bet is the only decision you have to make, and I know for certain that I much prefer to have a plan than to fly by the seat of my pants (where does that weird expression come from, anyway!).

In sports betting, I want the numbers to pick the day's bets, not me, because as my Daddy used to say, I could stick everything I know about sports up my nose and still have room for my finger.

(Dad could be a tad vulgar at times!).

This week has been a horror story for underdogs, and therefore for the 7-dog trial.

If this keeps up, even the 50x rules set will be back in the red for the first time in 2010, and the tight-spread column will drown in blood-colored ink.

You have to expect occasional lingering slumps, but this is ridiculous!

Today's updates:

As for the video poker distraction, it's all about NOT playing the way the house expects (and needs) you to.

I have queried quite a number of VP players on the rare occasions when I wander away from table games, and the majority of them believe in holding high-value cards, trying for busted straights with four cards, and holding three suited cards in the hope of getting a flush.

Whenever you hold non-suited high cards, you greatly limit your chances of seeing a payback higher than 2 for 1 (keeping in mind that getting your money back on jacks or better is not a win but a push!).

Hold suited fat cards only and flushes or straights are a possibility, however slight.

Mix and match those Aces, Kings, Queens and Jacks and flushes are out.

Busted straights (A,2,3,10,5) are a 12-1 proposition and therefore a foolish bet, and even open-ended straights (10,9,8,7,2) are a 6-1 long-shot. I confess, I will hold a straight that can be filled either end, but wince as I do it!

No way will I hold three suited cards for either a flush or a straight, except suited A,K,Q,J in any of the six tri-card combos that apply.

My own experience - and those folks I have talked to say the same - is that my best wins have come at me five cards at a time, no holds.

That includes the one and only royal flush that ended my prolonged experiment with the iPod Touch game with a "profit" of more than 25,000 units.

If you want to win steadily at VP you have to be open to those out-of-the-blue big paybacks.

Hold too many cards and you will need to be extremely lucky to win.

End of discussion!

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.