Friday, April 23, 2010

Finally, after two dismal days, dogs get their tails out from between their legs and deliver a 50% win rate. Once again, "It's the percentages"!

[Scroll down for Saturday's picks!]

Thursday's results brought a much-needed surge to both the 5x and 50x columns, and chances are there will be more good news today and over the weekend.

Why the optimism?

Because in every season in every sport, underdogs do substantially better overall than they have been doing lately, and that indicates that frequent "corrections" are as reliable (if never precisely predictable) in sports betting as they are in market investments.

In both cases, surprise slumps can do huge damage and for a while it looks as if there will never be a recovery.

But surges or spikes happen at least as often as slumps.

And as on Wall Street, they make the game worth the candle.

(That's an expression I have always been fond of, by the way: It's a pre-electricity saying to indicate that an after-dark activity is or is not worth the cost of the candle required to illuminate it!)

Once in a while, someone writes to tell me underdogs do not have to win in order for the bookies to make extra profits, and I get a lecture about "double-diming" and other sportsbook fictions.

A cursory examination of any day's odds schedule demonstrates that the book routinely pads odds in its favor so that its profit from popular events will far exceed 20%...or even 30% or 40%...whether the favorite wins or loses.

Given that 80% or more of all bets jump on the favorite, it stands to sense that an underdog win is always far more profitable for the book than the 20% or so it collects when the favorite prevails.

It's math that can be done on a napkin with a french-fry dipped in ketchup, and not a lot of squiggles are needed!

Today's my day to head off up to the Lake to recover my local losses at the tables, so I'm a little early with Friday's dog picks.

In a day or so, a breakdown of all the dog trial ups and downs to date, but for now, here's today's update:

Saturday, April 24 at 9:45am

Friday knocked 5x back a couple of notches but gave 50x a solid win worth more than $2,000.

Too rushed to post full details today, so here are Saturday's dog picks:

NBA 11:00am (508) Charlotte Bobcats +115 182/2
NBA 1:30pm (510) Portland Trailblazers +110 202.5/2
MLB 10:05am (952) Washington Nationals +130 9
MLB 10:10am (954) NY Mets +115 8.5
MLB 1:05pm (967) Cleveland Indians +120 7.5
MLB 3:10pm (973) Toronto Blue Jays +115 8.5
MLB 5:05pm (979) Detroit Tigers +145 9.5

I'm going to have to take a longer break next week, probably from Monday through Thursday, but will resume the 7-dog trial earlier if my work schedule permits.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._