Winning with Target Betting: The experts say the only lesson we are allowed to learn from past experience is that we can't win. Target betting says otherwise.

Something for nothing (but it's worth a lot more)

They say that if you get something for nothing, that's usually all it's worth. Not in this case. Ignorance is among the casino gambler's worst enemies, right up there with greed, stupidity, a pitiful bankroll, and a thirst for "free" cocktails. If you choose to learn the target betting strategy described in these posts, all it will cost you is your time. And it will be a valuable investment. There's a narrative thread here, so if you can spare enough time to start at the beginning (the "ghost story" below) you will hopefully get even more out of the blog. The blackjack simulation illustrated in logs here is Ken Smith's Blackjack Strategy Trainer and if you choose to apply my rules and log your results accurately in the format I use, I would welcome access to your data. Please e-mail scanned logs to me. Thanks! Seth

BST has some quaint little quirks you need to be aware of...

Ken Smith's Blackjack Strategy Trainer is invaluable to anyone wanting to learn the game (and how to beat it!) without risking any real money.
Aside from the irritating $1,000 table limit, there are a couple of minor bugs to watch out for.
When you are asked if you want to add another Grand to your bankroll, be very careful of your cursor's position before clicking the "money button" to draw more dough. If it's a little too far to the right, you will accidentally choose to quit, and then it's game over.
I play BST using my laptop's touch panel and tap to draw or stand. Once in a great while, finger bounce occurs, and an extra card is "dealt" unasked. Boy is it maddening to accidentally draw a 10 to a perfect 21...but it can happen.
Generally, Mr. Smith's app is about as perfect as these things get. The same card is never dealt twice between shuffles, and that's saying a lot.

An easy way to test the lie that progressive betting can't win.

Too many people accept without question the house-biased conventional wisdom that progressive betting cannot win over the long haul.
But there is a quick and easy (and also profitable) way to disprove this nonsense.
Next time you are in a casino, stroll up to a low-rent blackjack table, and start betting a Martingale progression (-5, -10, -20 for example).
Within a very few minutes, the dealer will do as he/she is trained to do and comment on the trouble you are headed for if you keep on doing what you're doing.
If you ignore the friendly tip, a pit boss will soon appear at your elbow, make polite introductions, and repeat the advice the dealer gave you.
If you persist, you will be discouraged from further play.
What is especially revealing about this scenario (one that you will find never varies) is that the same consideration and friendly advice is never offered to drunks and other fools who are throwing their money away all around you.
Why is that, do you think...?
I absolutely do not recommend double-up betting other than for the test I just described.
I avoid it not because it doesn't work, but because casinos will not permit it to be played.
Mathematicians can "prove" the hazards of progressive betting with simulations built on a random numbers generator.
Such simulations require that the "player" be barred from taking any defensive action under any circumstances. In other words, he has to bet like a mythematician.
Real players have more sense. Some of them, at least.

A couple more things you should know...

My extensive use of Ken Smith's Basic Strategy Trainer (BST) blackjack application in this blog does not and is not meant to imply his endorsement of target betting. Mr. Smith is an advocate of card counting and advantage play, and as such does not recognize any alternative betting method as viable.
Target betting is a generic phrase meant to convey the core premise of my betting method, which is to maximize the positive effect of winning trends and minimize the damage done by negative trends.
Some years ago, a systems promoter named Jerry Patterson devised a method that he described as Target Betting (with a capital 'T' and a capital 'B') which drew its name from...well, that was never quite clear.
My version of target betting has nothing whatever to do with Mr. Patterson's ideas, and could as easily be described as "pattern betting" because it relies on predictable, reliable actual patterns that can be seen in any sample of random outcomes from games of chance.
So let's be clear: Ken Smith has no connection with anything you see in this blog, and target betting (small 't' and small 'b') owes nothing whatever to Jerry Patterson.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

The experts say the only lesson we are allowed to learn from past experience is that we can't win. Target betting says otherwise.

[Scroll down for current underdog selections]

Yes, I would be much happier if both the 5x and 50x rules sets for the on-going 7-dog trial were thousands ahead and the record showed nary a dip in our fortunes.

But even little kids still in diapers quickly learn that real life is all about ups and downs and learning how to get back on your feet after a fall.

The last three underdog days have been kind to the 50x column and not too hard on the conservative approach to target approach (which, as is so often the case, has proved to be the most dangerous betting policy in the long run).

The wide-spread tracker is firmly back in the green but still a long way short of its best win to date.

The 5x chart seems to be doomed to bouncing up and down interminably, deprived as it is of the ammo it needs to blast its way out of the hole on those days when the dog win rate matches or exceeds its 45% historical average.

Here are the current numbers:

Monday, April 26 at 12:15pm

Today's picks, hot on the heels of another 4/7 day on Sunday...

NBA 526 Milwaukee Bucks 189-2 +115 5:30PST
NHL 6 Nashville Predators 5 +130 6:00
MLB 952 NY Mets 8.5 +110 4:10
MLB 955 Washington Nats 8 +140 5:05
MLB 964 SF Giants 6.5 +140 7:15
MLB 966 Toronto BJs 9 +120 4:10
MLB 967 Detroit Tigers 9.5 +125 5:05

Tuesday, April 27 at 11:10am

One game was delayed yesterday (Dodgers/Mets) but dogs managed "upsets" in three out of six picks and the 50x column leaped ahead dramatically thanks to great timing. Even the 5x rules set eked out a win!

Today's picks are all from the MLB schedule:

903 4:10 San Diego Padres 9 +115
905 5:05 Washington Nats 8 +135
916 7:15 SF Giants 9.5 +120
919 4:05 Min Twins 8 +110
922 4:05 Baltimore Orioles 9 +130
923 4:10 Oakland As 8.5 +135
931 4:10 LA Dodgers 7 +120

(All target betting wagers are "straight up" or money-line only, meaning that only the final result matters; I include totals and spreads where appropriate for those who bet on such things - both toss-ups that in my opinion are only good for the book!).

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Winning with Target Betting

Featured Post

It's fine by me if the gambling biz wants to portray me as a clueless crackpot. But stupid? Now they have crossed the line! Oh, and if you're looking for gambling's holy grail* it's been right here for years...

Three zebras meet their first horse (or a trio of mythemat- icians discuss a new winning strategy?)

Something for nothing (but it's worth a lot more)

BST has some quaint little quirks you need to be aware of...

Blog Archive

An easy way to test the lie that progressive betting can't win.

A couple more things you should know...

Sunday, April 25, 2010

The experts say the only lesson we are allowed to learn from past experience is that we can't win. Target betting says otherwise.

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