Some of you are going to say it was just luck that lined up yesterday's three right picks out of seven with the biggest three bets in the 50x column.
Truth is, it was a statistical inevitability.
The DWR (currently at 42.9%) applies pretty much equally to each of the seven series or lines in the 7-dog trial, and each line sees an equal amount of so-called "luck."
It just happened to be 50x's "turn" yesterday, and it is an ancient truism that everything comes eventually to he who patiently waits!
The difference between the 50x and 5x results is the difference between stepping out in luck's path so that it will run into you when it comes by, and hanging back cautiously.
Whenever I am in a casino (a rare event these days thanks to the online alternatives - twice a week is the most I aim for) I will see at least one player failing to sensibly exploit a winning streak.
One regular at my local plays so badly that if I run into him, I will switch to another table if I can.
He plays perfect blackjack basic strategy, so he's not a danger to other players, but he bets a woefully tight spread in the 21 circle and frequently matches his main bet in the "Royal Match" death trap.
In town, RM pays 3 to 1 for a 4 to 1 proposition, which is all the reason a sensible player needs to avoid it.
In some casinos, the payback for two first cards of the same suit is 2.5 to 1, giving the house an even bigger edge.
Now, I accept that every man has the right to flush his money down the toilet if he wants to. I just don't have to watch him do it.
I am gearing up not just for a full-bore assault on baseball come Monday, but also for more online play at 21 and baccarat.
I have simply reached the point where playing at crowded tables, sucking in other people's cigarette smoke and having to get out of my pajamas for the privilege is getting a little old.
If I lived in Las Vegas, I might feel differently, but Sin City is more than 450 miles down a lonesome road peppered with speed traps, and my part of Nevada is a whole lot prettier anyway.
Here's current data. Come back tomorrow for more about the database queries I have been running this week.
I am often accused of being obsessed with statistics and models, perhaps even preferring game analysis to actually playing.
Not so. What I like to do is to learn as much as I can about the risks I face in any game before I put good money on the line.
It has been more than six months now since my pal Peter Punter lured me away from table games into the then unknown world of sportsbook betting.
I do not regret a moment of the time I have spent on studying archival data and betting the 7-dog trial each day (it actually takes more work to post this blog than to place and track the bets!).
As I said, I have been tiring of casino outings for quite some time, and popping in for just a few minutes to visit the sports book - or, better yet, staying home and placing bets - was a welcome change of scene and pace.
Thanks, Pete!
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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