Friday, May 28, 2010

Another spin of an old, cracked record: It's all about spread, which we can control, and timing, which we can't.

(Please scroll down for updates!)

We dropped our visitor off at Reno-Tahoe Airport at sunrise today, and it will take me a while to catch up with sports book activity over the last few days.

Thursday was the fourth day in a row to deliver four right bets out of seven, and if luck had smiled on the 7-dog trial, 50x at least would be looking pretty darn good right now.

Instead, the wins keep skipping over the big bets, perhaps making a powerful argument for not dropping back to a minimum wager when a series achieves a full recovery.

I will post much more about this next time, and for now will simply post Friday's dog selections:

NBA 1730 #521 Orlando Magic +145 188/3.5
MLB 1120 #952 Chicago Cubs +110 6.5
MLB 1610 #955 Philadelphia Phillies +105 9.5
MLB 1635 #957 Pittsburgh Pirates +150 8.5
MLB 1810 #961 L.A. Dodgers +120 9.5
MLB 1905 #963 Washington Nationals +135 6.5
MLB 1915 #965 Arizona D'backs +120 7.5

The InvestaPick crew remain on vacation!

Perhaps they are tweaking their methodology to widen their spread and recover those big chunks of cold cash that get flushed down the toilet when a big win brings home just 90% of prior losses.

The rules that have governed the 7-dog trial since I launched it almost seven months ago are in some ways more aggressive than I would like.

But the 50x spread is a climb down from the original table games version of the strategy, and it is not working out as well as it should.

Limiting spread has always been the casinos' best means of boosting their bottom line, and they have far more control over it than bookies do.

For example, if a prolonged losing streak calls for an enormous jump in the next bet (NB) value when a win finally comes along, then a strict application of the rules will attract pit critter attention, and probably countermeasures too.

Sports books have limits as well, of course, but they can be relatively easily circumvented by parceling out a large NB to several different bookies.

Where I live, there are at least 20 books within an hour or so's drive, and having several online accounts simplifies the process even further.

What keeps us all in check, naturally, is money, money, money...and confidence.

The 50x rules set has been thwarted by unlucky timing so often in the past few days that while it is still in profit, it now stands at barely 12% of its best cumulative win to date.

Had the max been 100x, it would have been even worse off, deep in red ink at -160% of its BWTD.

At 150x, the current bankroll soars to 93% of its zenith and more than +8% of total action, and thereafter the bottom line keeps on getting fatter with each increase in the "max multiple."

It all comes down to the same old truth: winning can be an expensive proposition, but the only alternative (apart from losing!) is blind luck, and plenty of it.

Saturday, May 29 at 1:10pm

Friday brought just three right picks out of seven, but for once, the wins lined up with a big bet (one of two) and 50x got a much-needed boost.

Every time I visit one of my local casinos, someone asks "How's that underdog thing working out for you?" in much the same tone they'd use to ask "Is your invisible friend feeling better today?"

But to me, the whole dog concept is a flat-out no brainer, given that it's impossible to make a buck from consistently betting favorites unless you use some form of target betting such as the simple Martingale applied at InvestaPick.

Still no IP picks, by the way, making this a 33-day stand-down for all three sports funds.

The big question, of course, remains How much risk/investment is required to profit from underdog betting? and all I can do is refer to the comments I posted yesterday.

Skeptics always deride any long-term betting strategy by scoffing that if it were possible to keep on raising the bet until a losing streak ends, everyone except the bookies would be a winner.

It's not that simple.

Longshots do not win often enough for their high average paybacks to offset the bookies' advantage, and odds too close to even money fail for the opposite reason (paybacks too small to effectively exploit an increased win rate).

The 50x rules set, allowing a maximum bet of $5,000 against a minimum of $100, had a bumpy ride from the start of the 7-dog trial last November 1 until mid-December, when it took off like a rocket.

The 50x column fell foul of gravity a couple of months later, spending a day in the red on April 21 after falling to -$6,732.

Right now, it is $10,000-plus ahead of the bookies, which may seem a paltry return on seven months of almost daily betting, but sure as hell beats what most punters have to endure: LOSING.

As I said earlier, I have come to accept that a 5x spread is a lost cause - no surprise, because I predicted it! Acceptance in this context means affirmation that tight spreads are doomed in any game with a house advantage - and in the real world, there is no other kind.

Here are updated charts and summaries:-





Sunday, May 30 at 10:05am

Saturday was not a happy day for underdogs: a 33% DWR overall, and a pathetic 20% for MLB teams.

C'est la guerre...

Sunday's selections:

MLB 1010 #951 Philadelphia Phillies +105 9
MLB 1110 #957 NY Mets +115 9.5
MLB 1305 #963 Washington Nats +120 7
MLB 1005 #969 Oakland As +105 8.5
MLB 1235 #977 Seattle Mariners +145 9
MLB 1705 #979 TX Rangers +120 8.5
WNBA 1500 #651 Seattle Storm +115 2 149

WNBA teams have some seriously drippy names, it seems to me: baseball teams have names that mostly match up with their location, but Comets, Storm, Mystics and Sky are just four handles that don't seem to have much to do with anything!

Oh well, it's a free country. All that matters is that the ladies win when I pick 'em.

Monday, May 31 at 10:15am

A woeful weekend, all told...

The 5x rules set hit its lowest red numbers to date, and 50x was a color match for the first time in weeks.

More about the latest damage tomorrow, and in the meantime, add the NHL's Philly Flyers (1700 #003 +160 6) to the following MLB bets for today's selections:-


Tuesday, June 1 at 12:55pm

Underdogs took another beating Monday and so did we, on the day that the 7-dog trial reached its seven-month milestone (or millstone!).

Bottom line: the 5x rules set now seems permanently mired in the muck, and the 50x wider spread approach has slipped to its lowest point since the trial was just over a month old on December 3, 2009.

So, no good news to crow about, except that a lot of useful lessons have been learned since this whole sports book saga began late last August.

More about that when I have more time in a day or two.

Meanwhile, today's bets (in bold type in this extract from the expanding MLB database)...


...and something to think about in the coulda, woulda, shoulda department:




The last of three snaps above shows where we are at with a 50x max and each series falling back to a minimum bet after meeting its target (aka recovery).

The middle graph shows the dramatic change that woulda occurred if the max had been 150x the min instead of 50x.

The first of the three new graphs depicts the overall outcome with 150x and post-recovery bets set at not less than LTD/140, meaning that instead of falling back to $100 after a series turns around, we raise the minimum to a percentage of the combined LTD for all seven lines or series.

What does all this mean?

For one thing, it proves what I have been saying for years about the need to spread as wide as possible, just as target betting requires you to do against table games.

Spreading wide, of course, means making your maximum bet as large a multiple of your minimum bet as you can afford.

The effect, as you can see above, is reduced risk, not the opposite.

It confirms that casinos and bookies win in the end not because of their relatively paltry house edge but because they have more money than we do.

The InvestaPick sports funds remain frozen in time, with no bets since April 27.

Odd.

Wednesday, June 2 at 3:45pm

Summarizing the seven months of the seven-dog trial is taking longer than I hoped, especially since the family breaks I took in May have left me with a whole lot of "real work" catching up to do.

Meanwhile, with apologies to those of you who like to match my bets (there must be thousands of you!), please add the NHL's Chicago Blackhawks (1700 #005 +110 5.5) to the following MLB dog selections for today, Wednesday, June 2:


Thursday, June 3 at 11:15am

The 7-dog trial was skunked yesterday, for only the fourth time in seven months of almost daily betting!

Bummer...

No picks today, Thursday, not because of Wednesday's disaster but because there are not enough qualifying options on a slow baseball day.

I'm still working on the 7-month summary. Bear with me, OK?

Friday, June 4 at 1:35pm

The 7-month 7-dog trial analysis will go up as a new post either later today or tomorrow.

I want to include underdog data going all the way back to the start of the 2008 baseball season, and the enormity of that task is slowing me down somewhat!

The question begged by the 7-month data is of course whether or not the patterns or trends applicable in that time span can also be seen throughout a much longer period.

If not, the whole "dog" concept is USCWAP (up #@!% creek without a paddle!).

Meantime, here are today's baseball selections:


The InvestaPick hiatus is now well into its second month for all three sports funds, and I can find no explanation anywhere on line.

I have also been unable to locate a Financial Times reference to InvestaPick, which is disappointing...


Saturday, June 5 at 3:45pm

Still working on the summary, and I toiled right past the window for Saturday's dog bets. I'll try to do better tomorrow...

Sunday, June 6 at 9:35am

...and here we are! The last couple of weeks have been deadly for dogs - and, worse, when they've squeaked out wins, I haven't picked 'em.


Today's seven underdog picks are in bold type. The "U" against some games indicates that the dog "qualifies" in the +100 to +180 range, but since I am restricted to seven selections a day, some qualifiers fail to make the cut.

Lately, the teams I have discarded have won and my picks have been thrashed, which would seem to make a solid case for backing ALL dogs on any given day.

In the seven-month roundup, you will see 12 series, not just 7. And if the range is widened by removing the upper limit while still requiring that dogs must pay back even money at least, there can be more than twice that many lines on days when multiple sports are in the mix.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Saturday, May 15, 2010

When you snooze (or, in my case, take a break for a family reunion!) you lose. But to quote Old Blue Eyes, that's life...

_
[Scroll down for current selections]

The three-day DWR for baseball underdogs (Wednesday through Friday) was 19/39 or 48.72%, which is just what the 7-dog trial needed for a long-awaited shot in the arm...and bankroll.

But when you don't bet, you don't win, and this week I chose to spend time with my family.

I did sneak off for an hour or so of blackjack along the way, and obliterated my win at the tables by somehow leaving my iPod gizmo in the men's room.

Quite a week!

Here's how dog bets coulda, woulda, shoulda if I had done things differently over the past three days.


But there's never any point in crying over skipped bets.

Here's where we stand right now...




Sunday, May 16 at 9:45am

Not a terrible day yesterday in spite of just three right picks out of seven.

The 5x column trod water at +$150 and 50x recovered Tuesday's losses plus change.

Here are today's charts:



Monday, May 17 at 10:00am

Sunday could have been kinder, with just three right picks out of seven, but today's another day, with the following picks:

4:10 PST 903 NY Mets +105 8.5
4:10 907 Arizona D'backs +120 9
5:05 909 Colorado Rockies +120 7.5
5:15 911 Wash Nats +140 9
7:10 915 Houston Astros +140 7.5
4:05 917 Chicago White Sox +115 9
5:05 927 LA Angels +110 9.5

Tuesday, May 18 at 1:55pm

Slim pickings on the dog front today, with odds generally too high or too low to qualify, so Tuesday is another day of rest.

Monday did some serious damage all around with just two right picks, once canceled game and four wrong bets.

Check back tomorrow!

Wednesday, May 19 at 7:15am

No picks for today either - more family stuff (we impulsively decided to head south to L.A. for a few days, but I will have my trusty laptop along for the ride and hope to resume online betting tomorrow).

I am intrigued by the InvestaPick status: No picks for any of the three lines since April 27. What's up with that...?

Thursday, May 20 at 11:25am

So here we are in balmy, sun-drenched Pasadena, a million miles below the snow-line and glad of a change of scene!

Top of my pick list today were the KC Royals at +115 but their game started too early for a vacationing bettor (at 9:05am!) and I missed that one. Oh, well...

Still unplayed today, Thursday:-

1705 MLB 962 Houston Astros +145 6
1235 970 Oakland As +110 8
1605 973 Tampa Bay +135 9
1610 975 Minnesota Twins +115 8.5
1705 977 Baltimore Orioles +115 9.5
1710 979 LA Angels +115 8.5
1600 NHL 59 Phil Flyers +110 5

Time for some good news?

Friday, May 21 at 3:10pm

Apparently not...!

The cautious, 5x rules set in the 7-dog trial is going the way of all lemmings, straight over a cliff.

Sadly, 50x is struggling too - although still, series #5 is the only one of the seven that's in the red.

Here are today's charts, with the latest picks:



Saturday, May 22 at 10:30am

It's tough to get ahead when the DWR is (at 4/15) barely 25%, but that's the way it was in the MLB Friday.

The damage wasn't much in the 50x column, but the 5x rules set took yet another nasty hit.

It's the old story: spread, spread, spread...

Saturday's picks:

(MLB) 11:15 955 LA Angels +115 9
16:05 952 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 9
16:05 966 Houston Astros +140 8
16:10 969 Chicago Cubs +140 8.5
16:10 971 Detroit Tigers +120 8
16:10 973 Boston Red Sox +120 10.5
16:10 976 NY Mets +135 8

Sunday, May 23 at 10:00am

Finally, a day with more right picks than wrong ones!

I doubt I will get the charts updated until I'm back home Wednesday - and the weather forecast says I will be driving through fresh snowfall less than a month from midsummer's day!

In the meantime, picks for today, Sunday:

MLB 1005 904 Cleveland Indians +120 9.5
1105 914 Chicago White Sox +110 8.5
1110 915 Colorado Rockies +125 8
1115 919 LA Angels +140 7
1310 923 San Diego Padres +125 7
1310 928 AZ Diamondbacks +125 9.5
1705 930 NY Mets +125 7

Monday, May 24 at 10:15am

Sunday brought four right picks vs three wrong 'uns for the second day in a row, which once again begs the question: Do dogs win more often on weekends, when betting volume spikes to its highest level?

Not an entirely serious question, maybe, but it is certainly logical to deduce that dog wins are better for the book when more favorite bets are on the line, keeping in mind that more than 85% of all punters back faves.

No picks for today, Monday, because it's a dead day in the sports world.

There are 15 games on the MLB schedule tomorrow, so please check back...

Tuesday, May 25 at 8:45am

Dogs won two of four MLB contests Monday, and a 50% encore today would be nice!

Tuesday's picks:

(MLB) 1610 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 8.5
1710 909 Houston Astros +145 9.5
1740 912 Colorado Rockies +110 9.5
1905 914 San Diego Padres +110 6.5
1710 926 KC Royals +120 9.5
(NBA) 1800 516 Phoenix Suns +110 1.5/221
(WNBA) 1600 652 Tulsa Shock +170 4.5/178.5

Tulsa is a long shot added to make up my 7-dog string, and if they pull off a win at +170, they will be worthy of their name...!

Wednesday, May 26 at 11:45am

Tuesday brought yet another four right bets out of seven, but while 5x got a nice boost, it was no help to 50x because the wins did not "line up" optimally.

It's tough to lose when you were right more often than you were wrong, but entirely "normal" for sports betting (unfortunately!).

No picks for today, Wednesday, because the odds on most underdogs are too short to be viable.

Say what?

Well, the whole purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that odds well above even money will over time offset the fact that underdogs have about a 10% disadvantage compared to their more popular rivals.

On the other hand, odds offered on favorites are so short on average that a 10% advantage over underdogs is not enough to enable a regular punter to make a profit.

I will go as low as +105 if I have to, but I am never happy about it.

I have not run the numbers in several weeks, but the last time I checked, dog odds between +110 and +145 showed the best results.

On the InvestaPick front, the mystery deepens - today makes it a full month without a single posted pick for any of the three featured "sports funds."

I can't hazard a guess as to what's going on.

What I do know is what I have known almost from the start: target betting works better with IP's selections than their method does.

But not, of course, when no bets are placed...

Thursday, May 27 at 10:10am

Wouldn't you know it - yesterday the baseball dogs win rate (DWR) was 75%!!!

I was not wild about any of the bets, which shows that after all these months, I know about as much or as little as anyone else about how the finals list will look.

Today's the last day of our family knees-up and life should start to return to normal tomorrow, after we have delivered our visitor to Reno-Tahoe Airport for a pre-dawn flight half way round the world to her normality.

Here are Thursday's bets, which should do well because today happens to be my wife's birthday and our wedding anniversary!

(MLB) 1010 901 Houston Astros +120 9
1120 903 LA Dodgers +105 7
1535 909 St. Louis Cards +105 7
1610 916 NY Mets +115 7.5
1610 919 Chicago WS +145 8.5
1610 921 KC Royals +150 9.5
1710 924 Minnesota Twins +105 9

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Finally, patience (aka blind faith?) is rewarded, and underdogs deliver six right picks out of seven for the first time in more than a month!

_
It's been a long time coming, but it had to happen eventually: a "correction" that helps balance the books for gambling's only consistent winners...the bookies.

Monday's almost clean sweep was also a welcome reminder that betting a wide spread can bring much more dramatic and effective recoveries.

Lower lows, yes, but higher highs mean that one good day like yesterday can make the future look a whole lot rosier in just a few short hours.

Today could push us off course again, but just a couple more dog days like Monday could just as possibly propel 50x to a new all-time high.

Prospects remain pretty bleak for the 5x rules set, but as I keep saying, no one should be surprised by that.

What target betting is all about is winning more when you win than you lose when you lose, and if your spread is as tight as 1 to 5, it is much harder to achieve that objective.

Here are updated 7-dog trial charts and today's bets.

(I still have no idea what's going on with InvestaPick's three separate betting lines, which are in a way a rel-world model for my underdogs experiment; there has not been a two-week break in betting in almost 18 months until now, and none of the three lines or series is in enough trouble to provide a clue to what's happening).





An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Monday, May 10, 2010

Taking a break for Mother's Day might have saved a few bucks for the 7-dog trial - who knows? One thing's for certain: This slump can't last forever!

_
There has not been good news for so long that I had to check the records to find the last winning day in the ongoing 7-dog trial.

The conservative rules set (5x) jumped ahead by $2,050 on April 27, which by an odd coincidence is the last day InvestaPick recorded a bet in any of its three "sports funds."

The more aggressive, more effective 50x approach won $3,480 on May 2 and has been in free-fall mode ever since.

I can't guess what the deal is with IP: My records for them only go back as far as January 1, 2009, and this is by far the longest across the board betting break in all that time.

On the 7-dog trial front, for once, I will let the charts do most of the talking...





An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Friday, May 7, 2010

Weeks like this remind us that if we don't bet, we can't lose. But then again, we can't win either! So we just keep trying...

_
[Scroll down for Saturday's underdog selections]

About the only happy news this week is that at least we're not exposed in the stock market!

Underdogs - our underdogs, to be more specific - have suffered a $5,550 hammering in the 5x column, and almost five times the damage in the 50x tracking chart.

It is disappointing, of course, because until the current slide, 50x seemed poised on the launchpad to a new high.

Thursday's Wall Street woes made betting on underdogs seem safe and sane in comparison, although I often feel that way walking out of a casino several percentage points ahead after a session involving little or no risk!

All of life is ups and downs, so we have to hope that unpredictable vertical motion is preferable to the horizontal alternative, right?

Here's today's data...





Saturday, May 8 at 10:10am

Hell week continues!

More about that next time. Meanwhile, today's updates...



An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

MLB's Texas Rangers saved the 7-dog trial from its first outright skunking Monday, a reminder that some days, you can't get arrested!

_
[Scroll down for Thursday's selections]

Just like you, I would prefer it if I could win every day.

But some days are harder than others.

Today on Wall Street, for example.

Just when you think it's safe to dip a toe back in the water, WHAMMO!

The 50x wide(r) spread rules set was knocked back to 71% of its best win to date on Monday, but today is another day and another recovery opportunity.

Things are not looking good for 5x. But according to the rules I have been preaching for as long as I have been in the business of betting, they probably never did.

On a day when dogs can only eke out 3 wins in 14 games across three sports, there's very little sunshine and not a whole lot of hay to be made...

Here are today's updates:-





To (hopefully) keep results to date from the 7-dog trial in perspective, here's the latest summary for all seven series or lines.


Right now, just one out of the seven is in the red.

Wednesday, May 5 at 10:35am

A tough day yesterday in spite of an overall DWR that topped 40%.

Timing, timing, timing...

Here are today's picks and Tuesday's finals:



Thursday, May 6 at 10:20am

Three right picks out of seven yesterday in spite of an overall 50% DWR.

My bad...

Tight-spread (5x) broke even and 50x slipped back a few notches.

Here are today's bets:



An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Monday, May 3, 2010

Some days, good (but not lucky!) timing can make up for a so-so underdog performance. It's all in the numbers, so it's no big surprise...

_
This summary of wins and losses to date for each of the series or lines in the ongoing 7-dog trial says most of what needs to be said:


The summary is from the 50x rules set, and I regret that I cannot report similarly green numbers from the 5x column.

The point that needs to be emphasized is that as long as the average value of underdog paybacks exceeds the "bookies' edge" derived from the deficit between overall losses and overall wins, backing underdogs can be consistently profitable.

The only other wrinkle is that as with betting on casino table games, the spread between the smallest and largest wager value must be adequate to the challenge of beating the odds.

The 50x rules set has been helped by a succession of wins for series #5, but those wins were statistically predictable.

Statistics require that an overall dog win rate (DWR) of, say, 43% will over time be pretty much equally reflected in each of the seven separate series.

50x is now standing at a little better than 84% of its best win to date.

I can't know ahead of time when or if recovery targets will be met, obviously, but it is a fact that spreading wide has been consistently profitable since the 7-dog trial began just over six months ago.

Red numbers have stained the record on only 20 of 171 days - a sterling performance that has not been matched by so-called "conservative" 5x play.

Here's the latest 7-dog data:-





I am reminded from time to time that the 50x column has been bouncing up and down erratically for weeks on end.

What matters is that spreading wide has made it possible for target betting to recover from every slump, and that's more than backing favorites in the same games could ever hope to achieve.

True, 84% of the best win to date is not the same as 100%-plus, but the pattern established since November 1 indicates that full recovery and a new high is not an impossible dream but absolutely, statistically inevitable.

If every 7-dog pick to date (all 1,174 of them) had been flipped to back the favorite, the win rate would have amounted to a 14.2% edge.

But that apparent advantage would not have been enough to deliver a profit because of paybacks so poor that the bookies would have cleaned up regardless.

Remember, when underdogs win, the bookies win too - and doesn't it make more sense to bet with the book rather than against it?

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.