Monday, May 3, 2010

Some days, good (but not lucky!) timing can make up for a so-so underdog performance. It's all in the numbers, so it's no big surprise...

This summary of wins and losses to date for each of the series or lines in the ongoing 7-dog trial says most of what needs to be said:

The summary is from the 50x rules set, and I regret that I cannot report similarly green numbers from the 5x column.

The point that needs to be emphasized is that as long as the average value of underdog paybacks exceeds the "bookies' edge" derived from the deficit between overall losses and overall wins, backing underdogs can be consistently profitable.

The only other wrinkle is that as with betting on casino table games, the spread between the smallest and largest wager value must be adequate to the challenge of beating the odds.

The 50x rules set has been helped by a succession of wins for series #5, but those wins were statistically predictable.

Statistics require that an overall dog win rate (DWR) of, say, 43% will over time be pretty much equally reflected in each of the seven separate series.

50x is now standing at a little better than 84% of its best win to date.

I can't know ahead of time when or if recovery targets will be met, obviously, but it is a fact that spreading wide has been consistently profitable since the 7-dog trial began just over six months ago.

Red numbers have stained the record on only 20 of 171 days - a sterling performance that has not been matched by so-called "conservative" 5x play.

Here's the latest 7-dog data:-

I am reminded from time to time that the 50x column has been bouncing up and down erratically for weeks on end.

What matters is that spreading wide has made it possible for target betting to recover from every slump, and that's more than backing favorites in the same games could ever hope to achieve.

True, 84% of the best win to date is not the same as 100%-plus, but the pattern established since November 1 indicates that full recovery and a new high is not an impossible dream but absolutely, statistically inevitable.

If every 7-dog pick to date (all 1,174 of them) had been flipped to back the favorite, the win rate would have amounted to a 14.2% edge.

But that apparent advantage would not have been enough to deliver a profit because of paybacks so poor that the bookies would have cleaned up regardless.

Remember, when underdogs win, the bookies win too - and doesn't it make more sense to bet with the book rather than against it?

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.