Tuesday, March 23, 2010

What was I thinking! Maybe the bug that had me enthroned for most of Saturday worked its way to my brain? Then again, I coulda been a hero!

As I keep saying - and I know you agree! - winning is all about timing.

It really wasn't a smart plan to effectively double my bet on two teams yesterday, hedging a straight-up wager with another on the spread.

But if those two dogs had delivered, I would today be a gambling genius (in my own mind, at least).

The sad fact is that Monday's games dragged the 5x trial to its lowest level to date, and dealt a body blow to the 50x column too.

The "aggressive" alternative rules set has been bouncing up and down like crazy for seven weeks now, but the good news is that just a couple of good days in succession could turn it around.

It's going to take a minor miracle for 5x to win $14,000 and reach the giddy +$6,000 heights of yesteryear, I concede. But I'm not giving up.

I also have to concede that I am cooling on the over/under spread idea, primarily because of those crappy <100% paybacks.

I will keep plugging away with research, but I do know that major league baseball and hockey, with their wimpy spreads, aka the run line or puck line, look a whole lot less attractive than basketball or pro football.

And since in a while there will be hardly anything but baseball to bet on, that discovery has given me pause!

Here's the latest data. Shed a tear or two, please...

Wednesday, March 24 at 3:00pm

Maybe the less said about Tuesday the better!

Finding the ideal odds range for underdog bets is proving a challenge, and all the time I am working on it, I hear nagging little voices reciting the mantra, "It's past, it's history, it's anecdotal."

I am cheered by the fact that the bookies too, like most humans, use what they have learned from past to create a plan for the future and then adapt, modify and improve upon on it as new data become available.

I know that the 7-dog trial is getting killed by too many wins with too tight paybacks, and the latest analysis of all potential bets since the trial began last November 1 says +110 to +145 is the optimum range.

More wins would solve that problem, you might remark, and I would agree with you.

But it is a fact that the 50x rules set peaked on February 10 at +$60,000 and the average daily dog odds to that point was +126.

Since February 10, dog odds have averaged +115. Quite a difference.

The 5x rules set hit its high point at +$6,000 on January 18, and from November 1 last year to that date, dog odds averaged +128, dropping to +118 since then.

My fault entirely: I became more risk averse, and it's an ancient Las Vegas truism that scared money never wins.

I haven't crunched the +110 to +145 numbers for the entire database, but I will, and I will tell you what I find.

Here's today's update:

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.