Monday, March 22, 2010

Dogs as a pack had a good day Sunday, but long-shot wins did not pay off for our trial (too risky!). Lesson learned: Try again on Monday...

My growing multi-sport database confirms what common sense suggests: Long shots are great when they pay off, but backing them day after day is a losing proposition.

Well, duhhhh...!

Sunday's NBA schedule had a couple of nifty dog winners in Indiana at +180 and Sacramento at +170, but I long ago began to tighten my range to between +100 and +150, and I tend not to put money down on anything above +130 unless choices on a given day are limited.

The whole point of this exercise is to reduce risk.

Eliminating it entirely would be nice, but even the bookies have not found a way to do that - and if they did, we would not be having this conversation!

Spread bets continue to look promising, except when the NHL is in the picture. The "puck line" is the same +/- 1.5 that applies in baseball, but the odds stink in comparison.

Back to plain old straight-up bets (with some mostly unsuccessful exceptions yesterday) and the sad news that both the 5x and 50x rules sets suffered setbacks.

Here's the skinny...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.