Friday, March 19, 2010

In the bookies' world, what goes down must always come up - so if we keep hanging on to their coat-tails, we'll do just fine!

When underdogs take a beating for several days in a row, I am sometimes inclined to forget that the guys who take our bets don't like it when favorites win more than their fair share of games.

By fair I mean expected, and expectation based on a sturdy faith in the numbers is what drives gambling in all its forms.

(Note that I didn't say gamblers, who often dance to a tune that has nothing to do with anything sensible, but gambling, which covers both sides of the equation!)

It's the reason that often, the odds on the strongest team in a given match-up are so short that they become unpalatable.

And that is when punters who feel they have to make a bet no matter what turn to spreads and totals rather that a straight-up outcome in their endless quest to make a buck or two against the book.

Simple-minded as I am, I much prefer to stick with backing the team I think is going to score the most - but I am slowly being tugged in the direction of more exotic bets so I can stay in the game when the money-line odds become downright silly.

My study of the three InvestaPick "sports funds" is to blame for that, I guess.

In spite of some betting pattern anomalies that will only be explained if I become an IP investor (when hogs become airborne!), the online service's computer-aided selections have a pretty impressive record going back far longer than my 7-dog trial.

The numbers the bookies came up with for Thursday's NHL schedule saved me from having to get unduly creative, and once again we had four right picks out of seven.


Yesterday's profits put the 5x rules set back to about where it was on March 7, which was a long way short of the best win to date (+$6,000 in mid-January) but better than we have seen in a while.

The 50x column ended Thursday's games at +$44,300, below the number for March 10 and $15,000 shy of its best ever - but all of a sudden, a full recovery actually looks do-able again.

Not that I ever doubted it...

Sunday, March 21 at 11:00am

Saturday turned out to be a pretty good day for underdogs (DWR 39%), but a lightning tummy bug turned me into a kicked underdog myself and I couldn't even crawl to Lapzilla to get my bets down. (No pants jokes, please).

Friday was a lousy day for the 7-dog trial under the 5x limit rules, but 50x caught another nice boost because one of the few dog wins coincided with the day's biggest bet.

Again: timing, timing, timing!

I'm feeling better - enough to get my job done, at least - so let's hope underdogs manage to put on a good show while the rest of us think about why we're not in church!

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.