Given a little downhill motoring and a following wind, the 50x rules set is now just a day or so away from regaining the best win achieved a lifetime ago on February 10.
After that, it's all about setting new highs as often as possible!
Tuesday's wins lifted 5x by more than $1,000 but the red ink is still sloshing around our ankles and it's going to take more than a few good days to get the original trial back in shape.
For the benefit of casino table games players who check in here now and then, I want to stress that the target betting rules that apply to sports book wagers are quite a bit less aggressive than the ones they are used to.
On the one hand, even a 45% DWR amounts to a negative expectation of (-)10%, and that's six to ten times the NE for baccarat or blackjack.
The big difference is that dog paybacks routinely exceed even money, especially when the +110 to +145 range I talked about yesterday dictates the selection process.
For example, my database of 6,000-plus games returns a DWR of 45.2% for all selections in the optimum +110 to +145 range, which is a bookie edge of (-)9.57% n flat bets.
But when payouts are added up, the negative number turns into +1.31% player edge.
Again, that's for flat bets, and target betting is not about pushing the same amount across the bookie's counter every time you make a bet.
I should add that against those numbers, target betting scores +18.15%.
I am counting down the days to baseball's start next week, and will open a separate fund to put the 110/145 range into action.
I will keep posting 7-dog trial results until the end of April or when both rules sets turn around, but will not do the same for the baseball bets.
When the trial is over, this blog will revert to its original casino games focus, reporting my local adventures and experiences and mentioning my sports book progress (or the very unlikely lack of it) just in passing from time to time.
Here's what's new...
Thursday, April 1 at 3:45pm
It would be great if a winning streak could last just long enough to put us back where we were a few weeks ago, but patience is an essential part of this gambling thing.
Without it, you're liable to do something daft.
Wednesday was not an up-the-ladder day.
Today, there were only five qualifying bets, and rather than sit out the schedule, I have backed them and applied them where wins can do the most good.
Here's the latest:
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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