Yesterday's all-ice lineup left the 5x 7-dog trial drowning in red ink, but there were big fat green numbers for the 50x alternate because the Dallas Stars delivered +115 from a 3-0 demolition of the Phoenix Coyotes.
Last night when I whooped with glee at a $5,000 right pick in the wake of two wrong ones on Thursday and Friday, my wife said with alarm that I was beginning to sound like a sports fan.
"You'll be watching games and guzzling Buzzwater next," she said.
Ain't going to happen. But I have always liked to win, believing that participation has it over spectating any day of the week.
And yes, I understand that betting on a game is not participating on the same scale as skating up and down and putting your teeth in jeopardy, but it is at least more active than simply watching from an armchair.
Clearly, there are bumpy days ahead for the cautious 5x trial, because six out of seven bets are at the max, and when the DWR is below par (as it was yesterday), the bankroll is sure to suffer a setback.
Dogs won just four of 11 NHL games Saturday and we caught two of them.
Let's take a look at today's summaries:-
Last time, I mentioned the statistical probability that each of the seven series in the dog trial would by now have won roughly the same number of bets apiece overall, and that's close to how it has turned out so far.
As of this morning, we had placed 716 bets in 102 days, with underdogs winning 43% vs. an expectation (one that dognostics will dismiss as a faint hope) of 45%.
We would therefore expect that each of the seven series would see, on average, a little over 43 wins to date.
Here are the actual numbers...
As you can see, the 7-line average is 44 wins to date.
Series 2,5 and 6 are over the average so far, and #6 (at 55) is way over.
Series 1,3,4 and 7 are below par.
Statistical pedants will confirm that neither 716 bets nor 102 days qualify as "representative samples" but as is always the case when reality meets theory, they are all that we have and they are what they are.
It is safe to bet that as time goes by, the disparities will fade away and statistical expectation will be satisfied.
At this point, if we had been flat betting since November 1, 2009, the 5x trial would be a 1x trial and would be in about as much trouble as it is right now with target betting.
The 50x trial outcome would be moot, because it too would be a 1x loser.
On the 5x side, target betting rules took us to a high of +$6,000 on January 18, then led us (temporarily!) into negative numbers.
Capping the max at 50x from the same $100 minimum delivered a win high of $59,800 on Feb 10 which I am hoping (but not necessarily expecting) will be topped today.
InvestaPick's IPE series finally broke an eight-bet losing streak Saturday with $130 on the Philly Flyers over the Montreal Canadiens to win $108.33 at -120, and I can't wait to see the value of today's wager.
The fund has taken a $2,485 hit in the slump that (hopefully) just ended, and I assume that loss will not be written off.
Like everyone else without money on the line with IP, I am just going to have to wait and see...
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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