Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Dogs rule on Tuesday and we catch 100% of our bets, providing an all-around boost for the 7-dog trial. Pity we only made two selections that day!

I was a candidate for a nasty case of the coulda woulda shouldas when I caught up with Tuesday's final scores last night.

But I have been doing this just about long enough to be happy when I manage to take a few steps up the ladder, especially when I am trying to climb out of a deep hole, without worrying too much about what might have been.

I have come to accept that my selection process needs to be refined, which is certainly not to say that it should be more subjective.

I don't plan to launch vigorously into the "sports fund" arena until major league baseball gets underway, and by then I will hopefully have figured out a reliable way to use the numbers to pick each day's smartest bets.

Yesterday, with all of the NHL bunch off the ice to avoid stealing Olympic thunder, I came close to making no selections at all, and finally settled on two, both of which won.

As it happened, four out of five NBA games went to underdogs, along with three out of seven CBB games.

The one thing you can count on is that however bad it gets from day to day, underdogs will always claw their way out of trouble over time.

They won't win more than half of all games, or even come close, but they will achieve a DWR of between 43 and 45 percent, and with target betting rules consistently applied, that's more than good enough.

It's not always an easy ride, as we have seen from the 5x summaries since we hit our high point on January 18 and from 50x in the last week and a half, but over time it is an upward trajectory.

Here's the latest data:

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.