Friday, February 19, 2010

It wasn't underdog performance that was the problem on Thursday, it was the selection process that struck out! And so it goes...

Underdogs came roaring back yesterday with both NBA games padding the bookies' wallets, and 10 upsets in 24 contests on the college basketball roster.

In spite of the surge, we could only manage two right picks in seven, which pushed both the 5x and 50x 7-dog trials deeper into the red.

It was a great day for a process that accepts all bets in the +100 to +180 range, that's for sure.

Dog surprises (not to be confused with those squelchy things you find on your front lawn) included New Orleans thrashing -700 favorites UL Monroe, and Loyola Marymount stepping on -750 faves Gonzaga.

Not that there will ever be a day when I recommend betting on underdogs with odds that long.

Here's how things looked after Thursday's games:

Things will get better soon, right?

On the 50x side, series #5 is somehow always out of the room when wins are handed out.

I guess there is a chance that we won't get back to the top of the curve until all or most of the other series are betting enough to offset the losses when they bring in winners and #5 is passed over again.

Saturday, February 20 at 9:15am:

Finally, a little progress on both fronts!

Underdogs continued their mighty surge on Friday, winning seven out of 12 NBA games and two of six CBB events, for a combined DWR of 50%.

That's better!

Here are updates for today, with current selections included, as always...

Sunday, February 21 at 11:35am:

Dogs delivered a DWR of 18% yesterday, bringing tough times for the 7-dog trial with bets capped at 5x the minimum, but more progress for the 50x parallel rules set.

There is also a discrepancy between the records below and the pre-games bet list posted yesterday.

I make it a point of policy to accept the consequences of my mistakes when they actually are my mistakes, but yesterday brought the second damaging source error in as many days.

I should explain: I do my best to post each day's upcoming bets as far ahead of game time as I can so that readers in time zones eight or more hours ahead of PST can match the bets if they want to without having to stay up past their bedtimes.

Every once in a while, I mess up, and a team that was the "dog" when I first put my list together becomes the favorite or (more likely) I write the data down wrong when I am copying from the 'Net while sipping my early-AM cup of coffee.

What happens next is that when the bets actually come to be placed, the slip-up is caught, and the money goes on the right team.

I draw my first odds data from a single source, knowing that it is mostly reliable but occasionally quirky.

Saturday, I listed the Sacramento Kings as my pick over the Los Angeles Clippers, when from the start the Clips were the underdogs. The same thing happened on Thursday (Stanford over Oregon in the CBB) and I ate the loss. The second time, I caught the error, and put it right in the public record as well as my private one.

As I said, I am happy to pay for my mistakes (or if not happy, at least willing!). This time the culpa was not mea!

Here's today's (shortened) bet list and all that other stuff...

Monday, February 22 at 12:35pm:

I placed only three bets Sunday and two of them were winners.

Good news for the 5x bankroll, bad for the 50x because the loser was a $5,000 max bet.

The NHL hiatus continues to make pickings slim, and I remain skeptical about NCAA basketball in spite of the fact that yesterday, dogs topped favorites six times in nine games, one of which I had on my list.

Here are the current updates:

Recovery is taking a while for both versions of the 7-dog trial, but that's really nothing new.

Only time will tell...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.