Saturday, February 27, 2010

A great dog day Friday for the NBA, but college basketball favorites managed almost a clean sweep, handing us another red-ink day. Think green today!

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Up against the clock today, so I'll just supply updates and leave it at that...



Later...

Today's games are partially under way and what will be will be.

Meanwhile, I confess I am just a tad disappointed that no one has picked up on my recent posts about video poker!

I realize that the kind of punter who is interested in betting smart against sports books is probably not the type to throw hard-earned money away on sucker trap slots.

The same applies to me.

I am a table games player, as a rule, and would only have been tempted back to video poker if my local casino had not shut down the pit, then sent out "free play" scrip worth more than $100 by way of an apology.

I didn't make my fortune with that Benjamin's worth of freebies, or with the $100 or so I added to the pot in the name of "research."

But I was able to conclude that I have been misreading video poker for years, deluded into assuming that because I had landed a few $1,000-plus royals I must be doing it right.

Logically, holding anything other than pairs, short-odds options or pat hands makes no sense, and the common recommendation that mixed-suit high cards ("paint" to a blackjack player) should be kept in hopes of a breakeven match is nuts!

Except from the house's standpoint, that is.

Similarly, busted straights - 2,3,4,6 and so on - should never be held unless they are also four-flushes, and money pairs (jacks or better) should always be broken up if one of the high cards matches suit with the three cards that would otherwise be junked.

Any scenario in which only one card is replaced and the odds of a winning draw are 12-1 against should be shunned.

If you have two pairs and are hoping for a full house, the odds are 6-1 and you are at worst sure to double your initial stake, a four-card flush is a 3-1 probability for a win, and a double-ended four-card straight is another 6-1 prospect.

Long odds, certainly, but you have a better chance of winning than if you hold high cards willy-nilly the way the "experts" tell you to do.

Here's where I'm at with the iPod game right now:


As always, I can't claim that the results I am getting are a guarantee that a life-size casino sucker trap will behave the same way, but I have yet to find anything on the 'Net to suggest that the iPod app is somehow deficient.

If anyone out there has information to the contrary, I would love to read about it.

I did find numerous references from people discovering that they have been holding the "wrong" cards for years, but did not click on all 101,100 links!

Maybe tomorrow?

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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