Friday, February 12, 2010

A cold-blooded, objective selection process is what we're always aiming for. But sometimes, objectivity is easier said than done!

C'est la guerre, as they say en France...Thursday provided another nice boost for the 5x limit 7-dog trial, but the Florida Panthers never stood a snowball's chance in hell against Vancouver and could not manage even a single goal.

So the 50x shadow tracking sheet took a hit that was at least softened by the fact that while the Panthers choked, five of the other six selections delivered the goods.

It would have been great to see the one and only max bet on the 50x list come in at +130, just as it would be nifty to win the lottery once in a while.

But as often happens, reality had other ideas.

One of the great appeals of this adventure - one that I was gently bullied into by my friend "Pete" - was that I have never been much of a sports fan, and so convinced myself that I could accept selections provided purely by the numbers.

In the first few weeks, I dutifully put money down on dogs within the +100 to +180 range in the order that they popped up on the schedule.

That got old very fast.

It was way too arbitrary, and the more I learned, the quicker I was able to recognize bets that were too silly to consider (much like Royal Match on a blackjack layout!).

That's when I narrowed the range, while still tracking ALL underdog options within the <= +180 range to satisfy skeptics who were poised to accuse me of cherry-picking and book-cooking.

Along the way, I have become familiar with individual teams, and hard as I try not to be interested in their day-to-day ups and downs, I'm happiest when the numbers permit me to back the ones I have grown to like the most.

I really have to try harder to fight that scary slide into sports fandom!

I don't doubt that once this approach to sportsbook betting becomes a permanent part of my daily routine, I will develop a selection process that fulfills the objectivity requirement.

In the meantime, I am confident that because in the end the overall dog win rate or DWR is what determines long term profit or loss, the way I have been picking bets during the past 100 days has not done any statistical damage.

After all, whatever method I use to make my selections, picks are always posted way ahead of game time and I can never know in advance what the final scores will be.

That does not prevent some readers from expressing doubts, and all I can say to them is that 99.99% of the time, today's bets will be found here at least an hour before online bookies shut their virtual windows.

Once in a blue moon, because of ISP breakdowns or whatever, I may post a pick a few minutes after a game has started.

That does not make the selection any less valid (it's the odds that count!) but it does mean that those who want to will be unable to make the same bet, and I apologize for that.

Here's today's info...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.