Friday, February 26, 2010

Thursday was another non-dog day, but we managed three wins out of seven anyway - OK news for 5x, not so great for 50x (will the slump ever end?).

On days like Thursday, I am tempted to conclude that extending the spread from 5x to 50x is all very well, but the recovery process might be boosted by increasing the bet load on series that have already turned around.

That way, we would not see relatively piddling wins failing to substantially offset losses when series #5 keeps on missing out, day after day.

Then I remember that the 50x tracking spreadsheet is set up to permit a variety of "what if" scenarios.

And when I test the spread the load theory, a win that still represents 64% of the best to date (Feb 10, a lifetime ago!) vanishes in an instant, to be replaced by a very large puddle of red ink.

This whole experiment is all about patience, really.

Years ago, I spent time with one of the most successful businessmen in the Lake Tahoe area of Northern Nevada, and he complained about the current Wall Street obsession with day by day and month by month results.

"I'm a quarter to quarter man myself," he told me. "And by that I mean quarter centuries."

About a decade after that interview, my temporary mentor decided he was ready to move on to new challenges, but too young to retire at pushing 80.

So he sold a business that he'd started in an aircraft hangar with two employees to GE...for a few grand less than a billion dollars!

One last thing: No more posting hours and hours ahead of game times, with apologies to readers in Europe who will now have to stay up later if they want to match my bets.

In this past week alone, there have been four screw-ups twixt the early AM and gametime, resulting in posted "dog" picks becoming favorites, or odds dropping like bricks in a bucket.

So here I am, 10 minutes from NBA and CBB tip-offs, with today's updates.

Read them...and wait.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.