Monday, February 15, 2010

Our more aggressive approach slips back into yo-yo mode, and recovery may be slowed down by the Vancouver Winter Olympics. But it will happen.

The latest charts and summaries tell it all (which won't stop me from adding a few words in a minute!)

It's going to be quite a challenge to find seven bets a day while the NHL takes a break to avoid distracting sports fans from the Vancouver games, and today the NBA schedule is also bare.

As you can see, what I decided to do was apply selections where wins would do the most good, and the lone max bet in the 50x list certainly qualifies.

In the long run, it doesn't matter which pick or what odds are applied to which series, so this is merely a real-time expedient.

The 5x trial has suffered a couple of nasty setbacks because of disappointing DWRs over the weekend, but I still live in hope that an eventual turnaround is possible.

The 50x alternate fell back Sunday after a Saturday boost, and the matching chart below confirms that yo-yo mode is nothing new when the spread is from 1 to 50.

History also shows that 5x is considerably more volatile and ultimately more "dangerous" in relative terms than what at first blush seems to be a riskier option.

Think of it this way: the 50x update above shows that unrecovered LTDs before game time today total $16,965 or roughly 3.5x the maximum bet.

The unrecovered total for 5x is higher at $21,300 and is 43x the max.

Which set of rules is most likely to prevail soonest?

That was a rhetorical question...!

I now have to accept that I have no idea what's going on in the world of InvestaPick!

Valentine's Day brought a right pick at -120 for the ailing IPE series, and today it shows up as a win worth $32.50 or a tiny fraction of the losses racked up by the recent eight-bet slump.

As regular readers know, I modified the target betting rules for all three of the IP series dating back to January 1, 2009, to take into account the fund's tendency to accept odds of -110 or worse.

A target betting rule that dominates right now is that no bet can be more than 10x the previous bet (PB), so doing things my way, Sunday's win would have risked $1,000 and earned $830 towards recovery.

Today's pick (if there is one - I won't know until the website confirms it) should be at $4,000 to recover the $3,600 LTD remaining from the recent slump, keeping in mind that next bet (NB) values always assume a 90% payback at best.

But that is not how IP manages its money.

Oh, well: They seem to have a pretty impressive track record overall, so perhaps they know best.

Right now, the bottom line number for the IPE series using target betting rules is $5,434 in profits since January 1 last year, or +96% on an initial investment of $5,000 after fees of about $700 have been deducted.

The equivalent number for IP's much more conservative (and perhaps much smarter) set of rules is +$579 gross, or a small loss for this one series after deduction of 14 x $49.

One big difference is that so far, IP has dropped just $88 into the red in 13-plus months, whereas at one point, the target betting method was over $4,000 in the hole, risking a far larger percentage of its initial bankroll.clai

As always, it is a matter of balancing potential risk against potential reward.

InvestaPick claims to double investors' money in a year or so, a process that using the tried and true "rule of 72" would take a decade and a half at current bank interest rates.

That is a promise that deserves some respect. As long as it is not broken, that is.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.