When you snooze (or, in my case, take a break for a family reunion!) you lose. But to quote Old Blue Eyes, that's life...

_

[Scroll down for current selections]

The three-day DWR for baseball underdogs (Wednesday through Friday) was 19/39 or 48.72%, which is just what the 7-dog trial needed for a long-awaited shot in the arm...and bankroll.

But when you don't bet, you don't win, and this week I chose to spend time with my family.

I did sneak off for an hour or so of blackjack along the way, and obliterated my win at the tables by somehow leaving my iPod gizmo in the men's room.

Quite a week!

Here's how dog bets coulda, woulda, shoulda if I had done things differently over the past three days.


But there's never any point in crying over skipped bets.

Here's where we stand right now...




Sunday, May 16 at 9:45am

Not a terrible day yesterday in spite of just three right picks out of seven.

The 5x column trod water at +$150 and 50x recovered Tuesday's losses plus change.

Here are today's charts:



Monday, May 17 at 10:00am

Sunday could have been kinder, with just three right picks out of seven, but today's another day, with the following picks:

4:10 PST 903 NY Mets +105 8.5
4:10 907 Arizona D'backs +120 9
5:05 909 Colorado Rockies +120 7.5
5:15 911 Wash Nats +140 9
7:10 915 Houston Astros +140 7.5
4:05 917 Chicago White Sox +115 9
5:05 927 LA Angels +110 9.5

Tuesday, May 18 at 1:55pm

Slim pickings on the dog front today, with odds generally too high or too low to qualify, so Tuesday is another day of rest.

Monday did some serious damage all around with just two right picks, once canceled game and four wrong bets.

Check back tomorrow!

Wednesday, May 19 at 7:15am

No picks for today either - more family stuff (we impulsively decided to head south to L.A. for a few days, but I will have my trusty laptop along for the ride and hope to resume online betting tomorrow).

I am intrigued by the InvestaPick status: No picks for any of the three lines since April 27. What's up with that...?

Thursday, May 20 at 11:25am

So here we are in balmy, sun-drenched Pasadena, a million miles below the snow-line and glad of a change of scene!

Top of my pick list today were the KC Royals at +115 but their game started too early for a vacationing bettor (at 9:05am!) and I missed that one. Oh, well...

Still unplayed today, Thursday:-

1705 MLB 962 Houston Astros +145 6
1235 970 Oakland As +110 8
1605 973 Tampa Bay +135 9
1610 975 Minnesota Twins +115 8.5
1705 977 Baltimore Orioles +115 9.5
1710 979 LA Angels +115 8.5
1600 NHL 59 Phil Flyers +110 5

Time for some good news?

Friday, May 21 at 3:10pm

Apparently not...!

The cautious, 5x rules set in the 7-dog trial is going the way of all lemmings, straight over a cliff.

Sadly, 50x is struggling too - although still, series #5 is the only one of the seven that's in the red.

Here are today's charts, with the latest picks:



Saturday, May 22 at 10:30am

It's tough to get ahead when the DWR is (at 4/15) barely 25%, but that's the way it was in the MLB Friday.

The damage wasn't much in the 50x column, but the 5x rules set took yet another nasty hit.

It's the old story: spread, spread, spread...

Saturday's picks:

(MLB) 11:15 955 LA Angels +115 9
16:05 952 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 9
16:05 966 Houston Astros +140 8
16:10 969 Chicago Cubs +140 8.5
16:10 971 Detroit Tigers +120 8
16:10 973 Boston Red Sox +120 10.5
16:10 976 NY Mets +135 8

Sunday, May 23 at 10:00am

Finally, a day with more right picks than wrong ones!

I doubt I will get the charts updated until I'm back home Wednesday - and the weather forecast says I will be driving through fresh snowfall less than a month from midsummer's day!

In the meantime, picks for today, Sunday:

MLB 1005 904 Cleveland Indians +120 9.5
1105 914 Chicago White Sox +110 8.5
1110 915 Colorado Rockies +125 8
1115 919 LA Angels +140 7
1310 923 San Diego Padres +125 7
1310 928 AZ Diamondbacks +125 9.5
1705 930 NY Mets +125 7

Monday, May 24 at 10:15am

Sunday brought four right picks vs three wrong 'uns for the second day in a row, which once again begs the question: Do dogs win more often on weekends, when betting volume spikes to its highest level?

Not an entirely serious question, maybe, but it is certainly logical to deduce that dog wins are better for the book when more favorite bets are on the line, keeping in mind that more than 85% of all punters back faves.

No picks for today, Monday, because it's a dead day in the sports world.

There are 15 games on the MLB schedule tomorrow, so please check back...

Tuesday, May 25 at 8:45am

Dogs won two of four MLB contests Monday, and a 50% encore today would be nice!

Tuesday's picks:

(MLB) 1610 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 8.5
1710 909 Houston Astros +145 9.5
1740 912 Colorado Rockies +110 9.5
1905 914 San Diego Padres +110 6.5
1710 926 KC Royals +120 9.5
(NBA) 1800 516 Phoenix Suns +110 1.5/221
(WNBA) 1600 652 Tulsa Shock +170 4.5/178.5

Tulsa is a long shot added to make up my 7-dog string, and if they pull off a win at +170, they will be worthy of their name...!

Wednesday, May 26 at 11:45am

Tuesday brought yet another four right bets out of seven, but while 5x got a nice boost, it was no help to 50x because the wins did not "line up" optimally.

It's tough to lose when you were right more often than you were wrong, but entirely "normal" for sports betting (unfortunately!).

No picks for today, Wednesday, because the odds on most underdogs are too short to be viable.

Say what?

Well, the whole purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that odds well above even money will over time offset the fact that underdogs have about a 10% disadvantage compared to their more popular rivals.

On the other hand, odds offered on favorites are so short on average that a 10% advantage over underdogs is not enough to enable a regular punter to make a profit.

I will go as low as +105 if I have to, but I am never happy about it.

I have not run the numbers in several weeks, but the last time I checked, dog odds between +110 and +145 showed the best results.

On the InvestaPick front, the mystery deepens - today makes it a full month without a single posted pick for any of the three featured "sports funds."

I can't hazard a guess as to what's going on.

What I do know is what I have known almost from the start: target betting works better with IP's selections than their method does.

But not, of course, when no bets are placed...

Thursday, May 27 at 10:10am

Wouldn't you know it - yesterday the baseball dogs win rate (DWR) was 75%!!!

I was not wild about any of the bets, which shows that after all these months, I know about as much or as little as anyone else about how the finals list will look.

Today's the last day of our family knees-up and life should start to return to normal tomorrow, after we have delivered our visitor to Reno-Tahoe Airport for a pre-dawn flight half way round the world to her normality.

Here are Thursday's bets, which should do well because today happens to be my wife's birthday and our wedding anniversary!

(MLB) 1010 901 Houston Astros +120 9
1120 903 LA Dodgers +105 7
1535 909 St. Louis Cards +105 7
1610 916 NY Mets +115 7.5
1610 919 Chicago WS +145 8.5
1610 921 KC Royals +150 9.5
1710 924 Minnesota Twins +105 9

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Finally, patience (aka blind faith?) is rewarded, and underdogs deliver six right picks out of seven for the first time in more than a month!

_
It's been a long time coming, but it had to happen eventually: a "correction" that helps balance the books for gambling's only consistent winners...the bookies.

Monday's almost clean sweep was also a welcome reminder that betting a wide spread can bring much more dramatic and effective recoveries.

Lower lows, yes, but higher highs mean that one good day like yesterday can make the future look a whole lot rosier in just a few short hours.

Today could push us off course again, but just a couple more dog days like Monday could just as possibly propel 50x to a new all-time high.

Prospects remain pretty bleak for the 5x rules set, but as I keep saying, no one should be surprised by that.

What target betting is all about is winning more when you win than you lose when you lose, and if your spread is as tight as 1 to 5, it is much harder to achieve that objective.

Here are updated 7-dog trial charts and today's bets.

(I still have no idea what's going on with InvestaPick's three separate betting lines, which are in a way a rel-world model for my underdogs experiment; there has not been a two-week break in betting in almost 18 months until now, and none of the three lines or series is in enough trouble to provide a clue to what's happening).





An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Taking a break for Mother's Day might have saved a few bucks for the 7-dog trial - who knows? One thing's for certain: This slump can't last forever!

_
There has not been good news for so long that I had to check the records to find the last winning day in the ongoing 7-dog trial.

The conservative rules set (5x) jumped ahead by $2,050 on April 27, which by an odd coincidence is the last day InvestaPick recorded a bet in any of its three "sports funds."

The more aggressive, more effective 50x approach won $3,480 on May 2 and has been in free-fall mode ever since.

I can't guess what the deal is with IP: My records for them only go back as far as January 1, 2009, and this is by far the longest across the board betting break in all that time.

On the 7-dog trial front, for once, I will let the charts do most of the talking...





An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Weeks like this remind us that if we don't bet, we can't lose. But then again, we can't win either! So we just keep trying...

_

[Scroll down for Saturday's underdog selections]

About the only happy news this week is that at least we're not exposed in the stock market!

Underdogs - our underdogs, to be more specific - have suffered a $5,550 hammering in the 5x column, and almost five times the damage in the 50x tracking chart.

It is disappointing, of course, because until the current slide, 50x seemed poised on the launchpad to a new high.

Thursday's Wall Street woes made betting on underdogs seem safe and sane in comparison, although I often feel that way walking out of a casino several percentage points ahead after a session involving little or no risk!

All of life is ups and downs, so we have to hope that unpredictable vertical motion is preferable to the horizontal alternative, right?

Here's today's data...





Saturday, May 8 at 10:10am

Hell week continues!

More about that next time. Meanwhile, today's updates...



An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

MLB's Texas Rangers saved the 7-dog trial from its first outright skunking Monday, a reminder that some days, you can't get arrested!

_

[Scroll down for Thursday's selections]

Just like you, I would prefer it if I could win every day.

But some days are harder than others.

Today on Wall Street, for example.

Just when you think it's safe to dip a toe back in the water, WHAMMO!

The 50x wide(r) spread rules set was knocked back to 71% of its best win to date on Monday, but today is another day and another recovery opportunity.

Things are not looking good for 5x. But according to the rules I have been preaching for as long as I have been in the business of betting, they probably never did.

On a day when dogs can only eke out 3 wins in 14 games across three sports, there's very little sunshine and not a whole lot of hay to be made...

Here are today's updates:-





To (hopefully) keep results to date from the 7-dog trial in perspective, here's the latest summary for all seven series or lines.


Right now, just one out of the seven is in the red.

Wednesday, May 5 at 10:35am

A tough day yesterday in spite of an overall DWR that topped 40%.

Timing, timing, timing...

Here are today's picks and Tuesday's finals:



Thursday, May 6 at 10:20am

Three right picks out of seven yesterday in spite of an overall 50% DWR.

My bad...

Tight-spread (5x) broke even and 50x slipped back a few notches.

Here are today's bets:



An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Some days, good (but not lucky!) timing can make up for a so-so underdog performance. It's all in the numbers, so it's no big surprise...

_
This summary of wins and losses to date for each of the series or lines in the ongoing 7-dog trial says most of what needs to be said:


The summary is from the 50x rules set, and I regret that I cannot report similarly green numbers from the 5x column.

The point that needs to be emphasized is that as long as the average value of underdog paybacks exceeds the "bookies' edge" derived from the deficit between overall losses and overall wins, backing underdogs can be consistently profitable.

The only other wrinkle is that as with betting on casino table games, the spread between the smallest and largest wager value must be adequate to the challenge of beating the odds.

The 50x rules set has been helped by a succession of wins for series #5, but those wins were statistically predictable.

Statistics require that an overall dog win rate (DWR) of, say, 43% will over time be pretty much equally reflected in each of the seven separate series.

50x is now standing at a little better than 84% of its best win to date.

I can't know ahead of time when or if recovery targets will be met, obviously, but it is a fact that spreading wide has been consistently profitable since the 7-dog trial began just over six months ago.

Red numbers have stained the record on only 20 of 171 days - a sterling performance that has not been matched by so-called "conservative" 5x play.

Here's the latest 7-dog data:-





I am reminded from time to time that the 50x column has been bouncing up and down erratically for weeks on end.

What matters is that spreading wide has made it possible for target betting to recover from every slump, and that's more than backing favorites in the same games could ever hope to achieve.

True, 84% of the best win to date is not the same as 100%-plus, but the pattern established since November 1 indicates that full recovery and a new high is not an impossible dream but absolutely, statistically inevitable.

If every 7-dog pick to date (all 1,174 of them) had been flipped to back the favorite, the win rate would have amounted to a 14.2% edge.

But that apparent advantage would not have been enough to deliver a profit because of paybacks so poor that the bookies would have cleaned up regardless.

Remember, when underdogs win, the bookies win too - and doesn't it make more sense to bet with the book rather than against it?

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.

It's like I keep saying: What goes down must come up. The bad news is that like slumps, surges can't last forever!

_

[Scroll down for Sunday's dog selections]

I had scheduled a break from blogging for a few days, but the ongoing "correction" after one of the worst dog dives since I started this experiment almost six months ago merits special attention, I think.

The 50x rules set for the 7-dog trial had another great day Tuesday thanks to a baseball DWR of 10/16 = 63% (10/21 overall) that gave us five right picks out of seven.

Casino advocate Mike Shackleford, self-anointed as the online Wizard of Odds, will tell you that winning is lucky and losing is the norm, and if you bet fixed or random values, he'll be right.

But target betting puts you ahead of the game even when you lose more bets than you win, and that's what's happening here.

In the 7-dog trial, right now we can claim 490 wins and 649 losses, which puts the bookies up a whopping 14 percent.

Betting a tight 1 to 5 spread, and even after a succession of wins, we are still $7,900 in the hole, or -5.6% of all betting action since November 1. The only good thing is that at least we're not 14% in the red.

I have been saying for decades that a tight betting spread is long-term suicide even against casino games with a house edge of less than 2%, but I set the 7-dog trial up on a twin track just to see if paybacks exceeding even money would put us ahead over time.

Widening the spread to 1 to 50 has us 30% down from our best win to date, but we are UP 4.7% of total action, and against a 14% bookies' advantage, that is no mean achievement.

Best of all, after yesterday's wins, only two of the seven lines or series are chasing recoveries in the 50x column, and matching and then exceeding the high we hit more than two months ago is looking do-able again.

Here's the latest data:





If you find yourself thinking This can't last, just remember that Mr. Shackleford and his casino clients very much want you to believe that, so you will do the right thing and quit while you are behind.

The last thing their bottom line needs is for punters to start thinking that betting right, rather than randomly, can improve their long-term prospects.

Thursday, April 29 at 9:50am

Checking yesterday's finals started out a thrilling experience then went rapidly downhill!

It was pretty much like the hour I spent in a Reno casino, where after winning fifty bucks in two minutes, I had to fight like crazy to get out with my skin in one piece...

The overall DWR was a healthy 44%, but we managed just three right picks out of seven, and the 5x rules set won just $100.

In the 50x column, unlucky timing meant that all three wins were at $100 bets, and the four losers lined up with big buck bets, one of them at the max.

That's how it goes sometimes.

Today's picks:

MLB 11:20PST 903 Arizona D'backs +135 13
MLB 7:05 907 Milwaukee Brewers +110 7.5
MLB 10:05 912 Detroit Tigers +125 9.5
MLB 11:05 913 Chicago WS +110 9.5
MLB 4:05 917 Oakland As +115 7.5
NHL 6:00 53 Detroit RWs +115 5.5
NBA 5:00 Dallas Mavericks +145 3.5/191

Friday, April 30 at 9:50am

Thursday left 5x at a standstill and 50x suffering the consequences of dropping a winning series all the way back to a minimum bet after a recovery!

Three wins out of seven selections isn't a terrible performance, but some days it's not quite good enough.

I repeat, the rules put in place on November 1 are, for the purposes of the 7-dog trial, sacred and inviolable!

That means that lessons learned along the way are lessons lost.

No complaints, just stating the fact that experience - what's past, in other words - is the best teacher, and adaptability has its place in the real world.

Today's dog picks:

MLB 11:20 951 Arizona D'backs +135 14.5
MLB 4:05 953 NY Mets +130 10.5
MLB 7:15 965 Colorado Rockies +105 7.5
MLB 4:05 971 Oakland As +115 9
MLB 4:05 974 Baltimore Orioles +130 9
MLB 7:10 979 Texas Rangers +130 7
NBA 7:00 554 Milwaukee Bucks +110 2 189.5

Saturday, May 1 at 9:50am

Friday's underdogs delivered an overall DWR of 47% but our 7-dog trial managed just three right picks out of seven.

50x got a nice boost because its two largest bets lined up with winners.

Today's picks:-



Sunday, May 2 at 9:20am

The timing that helped boost 50x to 78% of its best win to date yesterday would be dismissed as "lucky" by some.

In fact, as I have demonstrated here before, each of the seven series in the ongoing 7-dog trial has won and lost about the same number of times as any other.

Numbers rule, as always, and all we are seeing here is the fulfillment or vindication of statistical expectation.

Today's data:



_An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.

The experts say the only lesson we are allowed to learn from past experience is that we can't win. Target betting says otherwise.

_

[Scroll down for current underdog selections]

Yes, I would be much happier if both the 5x and 50x rules sets for the on-going 7-dog trial were thousands ahead and the record showed nary a dip in our fortunes.

But even little kids still in diapers quickly learn that real life is all about ups and downs and learning how to get back on your feet after a fall.

The last three underdog days have been kind to the 50x column and not too hard on the conservative approach to target approach (which, as is so often the case, has proved to be the most dangerous betting policy in the long run).

The wide-spread tracker is firmly back in the green but still a long way short of its best win to date.

The 5x chart seems to be doomed to bouncing up and down interminably, deprived as it is of the ammo it needs to blast its way out of the hole on those days when the dog win rate matches or exceeds its 45% historical average.

Here are the current numbers:





Monday, April 26 at 12:15pm

Today's picks, hot on the heels of another 4/7 day on Sunday...

NBA 526 Milwaukee Bucks 189-2 +115 5:30PST
NHL 6 Nashville Predators 5 +130 6:00
MLB 952 NY Mets 8.5 +110 4:10
MLB 955 Washington Nats 8 +140 5:05
MLB 964 SF Giants 6.5 +140 7:15
MLB 966 Toronto BJs 9 +120 4:10
MLB 967 Detroit Tigers 9.5 +125 5:05

Tuesday, April 27 at 11:10am

One game was delayed yesterday (Dodgers/Mets) but dogs managed "upsets" in three out of six picks and the 50x column leaped ahead dramatically thanks to great timing. Even the 5x rules set eked out a win!

Today's picks are all from the MLB schedule:

903 4:10 San Diego Padres 9 +115
905 5:05 Washington Nats 8 +135
916 7:15 SF Giants 9.5 +120
919 4:05 Min Twins 8 +110
922 4:05 Baltimore Orioles 9 +130
923 4:10 Oakland As 8.5 +135
931 4:10 LA Dodgers 7 +120

(All target betting wagers are "straight up" or money-line only, meaning that only the final result matters; I include totals and spreads where appropriate for those who bet on such things - both toss-ups that in my opinion are only good for the book!).

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Finally, after two dismal days, dogs get their tails out from between their legs and deliver a 50% win rate. Once again, "It's the percentages"!

_
[Scroll down for Saturday's picks!]

Thursday's results brought a much-needed surge to both the 5x and 50x columns, and chances are there will be more good news today and over the weekend.

Why the optimism?

Because in every season in every sport, underdogs do substantially better overall than they have been doing lately, and that indicates that frequent "corrections" are as reliable (if never precisely predictable) in sports betting as they are in market investments.

In both cases, surprise slumps can do huge damage and for a while it looks as if there will never be a recovery.

But surges or spikes happen at least as often as slumps.

And as on Wall Street, they make the game worth the candle.

(That's an expression I have always been fond of, by the way: It's a pre-electricity saying to indicate that an after-dark activity is or is not worth the cost of the candle required to illuminate it!)

Once in a while, someone writes to tell me underdogs do not have to win in order for the bookies to make extra profits, and I get a lecture about "double-diming" and other sportsbook fictions.

A cursory examination of any day's odds schedule demonstrates that the book routinely pads odds in its favor so that its profit from popular events will far exceed 20%...or even 30% or 40%...whether the favorite wins or loses.

Given that 80% or more of all bets jump on the favorite, it stands to sense that an underdog win is always far more profitable for the book than the 20% or so it collects when the favorite prevails.

It's math that can be done on a napkin with a french-fry dipped in ketchup, and not a lot of squiggles are needed!

Today's my day to head off up to the Lake to recover my local losses at the tables, so I'm a little early with Friday's dog picks.

In a day or so, a breakdown of all the dog trial ups and downs to date, but for now, here's today's update:



Saturday, April 24 at 9:45am

Friday knocked 5x back a couple of notches but gave 50x a solid win worth more than $2,000.

Too rushed to post full details today, so here are Saturday's dog picks:

NBA 11:00am (508) Charlotte Bobcats +115 182/2
NBA 1:30pm (510) Portland Trailblazers +110 202.5/2
MLB 10:05am (952) Washington Nationals +130 9
MLB 10:10am (954) NY Mets +115 8.5
MLB 1:05pm (967) Cleveland Indians +120 7.5
MLB 3:10pm (973) Toronto Blue Jays +115 8.5
MLB 5:05pm (979) Detroit Tigers +145 9.5

I'm going to have to take a longer break next week, probably from Monday through Thursday, but will resume the 7-dog trial earlier if my work schedule permits.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

Some days, you feel maybe you should have stayed in bed! Wednesday was a horror story on all fronts, including local table games.

_
It's like I always tell myself when everything that could go wrong has gone wrong: You have to lose to win.

And even after all these years, I still believe it.

Dogs gave me just one win in seven picks for the second day in succession, so now even the 50x rules set is awash in red ink for the first time this year.

I concluded quite a while back that seven picks a day is too many, but on days when all dogs are getting their hides thrashed, you're going to do badly no matter how many selections you back or how clever you think you are.

It's the percentages, stupid (I'm quoting a former President of the USA here, not insulting my readers!).

When I strolled into my "local" for a half hour of blackjack, I had no idea, obviously, that all but one of my underdogs were doomed to defeat.

Not that it would have made any difference.

What woulda made a difference was if I had paid attention to one of the regulars, who was standing in the cashier's line with a long face, and told me: "I wouldn't if I were you...all the dealers are hot this afternoon."

An hour later, I was licking my wounds from my first serious loss in months, and contemplating the awful truth that for now, I'm in the hole for the year to date.

Ouch!

There are still eight more months to go, of course, and I walked away from the killing field in mid-recovery after the dealer turned a stiff into 21 for the third time in a row.

That kind of luck you can't beat!

I'll have to buy in with three times as much cash next time to support the higher level of betting, but that's standard and nothing to worry about.

The likelihood is that I will be ahead again after the next session, which probably won't be until next week because I am never in a hurry to get back in the action after taking a rare drubbing at the tables.

One thing that provided an interesting distraction yesterday was the misbehavior of a player who was a stranger to me, and whom I hope will remain so.

He wasn't drunk and he didn't violate the basic strategy for blackjack, but he was a jerk who flashed green chips like a sailor on shore leave, and sighed and moaned about the fact that the two players on each side of him were betting the royal match.

My view is that RM is a mug's game, but yesterday the two punters at my table were making more money at that than they were at blackjack.

I don't like the way that what I see as a silly bet slows up everything else, but there is no sense in joining other players at a table if you have a hard time suffering the strangeness of your fellow man.

The fact that he was pushing hundreds of dollars out on each of two hands - and, what was worse, kept winning while the rest of us took it in the shorts! - did not give him the right to try to control the table.

The right way to respond to players who irritate you (a dealer too, for that matter) is to take up your chips and walk away.

Fools have a right to be parted from their money (as I was yesterday!) any way they want, and giving them a hard time is just plain rude.

The deadly table session was a reminder that the sports book is so much more civilized than the casino floor in so many ways.

I'm still waiting for Pinnacle to credit my new account - they have had my money for more than a week now, and the only thing that is stopping me from getting seriously anxious about that is the A+ rating they get from pretty much all the objective online critics I have canvassed for background.

The Pinnacle site is certainly impressive. Pity I still can't play any of their games!

Here's today's sports book update. Shed a few tears for the 7-dog trial, by all means...



An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.
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