Saturday, May 15, 2010

When you snooze (or, in my case, take a break for a family reunion!) you lose. But to quote Old Blue Eyes, that's life...

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The three-day DWR for baseball underdogs (Wednesday through Friday) was 19/39 or 48.72%, which is just what the 7-dog trial needed for a long-awaited shot in the arm...and bankroll.

But when you don't bet, you don't win, and this week I chose to spend time with my family.

I did sneak off for an hour or so of blackjack along the way, and obliterated my win at the tables by somehow leaving my iPod gizmo in the men's room.

Quite a week!

Here's how dog bets coulda, woulda, shoulda if I had done things differently over the past three days.

But there's never any point in crying over skipped bets.

Here's where we stand right now...

Sunday, May 16 at 9:45am

Not a terrible day yesterday in spite of just three right picks out of seven.

The 5x column trod water at +$150 and 50x recovered Tuesday's losses plus change.

Here are today's charts:

Monday, May 17 at 10:00am

Sunday could have been kinder, with just three right picks out of seven, but today's another day, with the following picks:

4:10 PST 903 NY Mets +105 8.5
4:10 907 Arizona D'backs +120 9
5:05 909 Colorado Rockies +120 7.5
5:15 911 Wash Nats +140 9
7:10 915 Houston Astros +140 7.5
4:05 917 Chicago White Sox +115 9
5:05 927 LA Angels +110 9.5

Tuesday, May 18 at 1:55pm

Slim pickings on the dog front today, with odds generally too high or too low to qualify, so Tuesday is another day of rest.

Monday did some serious damage all around with just two right picks, once canceled game and four wrong bets.

Check back tomorrow!

Wednesday, May 19 at 7:15am

No picks for today either - more family stuff (we impulsively decided to head south to L.A. for a few days, but I will have my trusty laptop along for the ride and hope to resume online betting tomorrow).

I am intrigued by the InvestaPick status: No picks for any of the three lines since April 27. What's up with that...?

Thursday, May 20 at 11:25am

So here we are in balmy, sun-drenched Pasadena, a million miles below the snow-line and glad of a change of scene!

Top of my pick list today were the KC Royals at +115 but their game started too early for a vacationing bettor (at 9:05am!) and I missed that one. Oh, well...

Still unplayed today, Thursday:-

1705 MLB 962 Houston Astros +145 6
1235 970 Oakland As +110 8
1605 973 Tampa Bay +135 9
1610 975 Minnesota Twins +115 8.5
1705 977 Baltimore Orioles +115 9.5
1710 979 LA Angels +115 8.5
1600 NHL 59 Phil Flyers +110 5

Time for some good news?

Friday, May 21 at 3:10pm

Apparently not...!

The cautious, 5x rules set in the 7-dog trial is going the way of all lemmings, straight over a cliff.

Sadly, 50x is struggling too - although still, series #5 is the only one of the seven that's in the red.

Here are today's charts, with the latest picks:

Saturday, May 22 at 10:30am

It's tough to get ahead when the DWR is (at 4/15) barely 25%, but that's the way it was in the MLB Friday.

The damage wasn't much in the 50x column, but the 5x rules set took yet another nasty hit.

It's the old story: spread, spread, spread...

Saturday's picks:

(MLB) 11:15 955 LA Angels +115 9
16:05 952 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 9
16:05 966 Houston Astros +140 8
16:10 969 Chicago Cubs +140 8.5
16:10 971 Detroit Tigers +120 8
16:10 973 Boston Red Sox +120 10.5
16:10 976 NY Mets +135 8

Sunday, May 23 at 10:00am

Finally, a day with more right picks than wrong ones!

I doubt I will get the charts updated until I'm back home Wednesday - and the weather forecast says I will be driving through fresh snowfall less than a month from midsummer's day!

In the meantime, picks for today, Sunday:

MLB 1005 904 Cleveland Indians +120 9.5
1105 914 Chicago White Sox +110 8.5
1110 915 Colorado Rockies +125 8
1115 919 LA Angels +140 7
1310 923 San Diego Padres +125 7
1310 928 AZ Diamondbacks +125 9.5
1705 930 NY Mets +125 7

Monday, May 24 at 10:15am

Sunday brought four right picks vs three wrong 'uns for the second day in a row, which once again begs the question: Do dogs win more often on weekends, when betting volume spikes to its highest level?

Not an entirely serious question, maybe, but it is certainly logical to deduce that dog wins are better for the book when more favorite bets are on the line, keeping in mind that more than 85% of all punters back faves.

No picks for today, Monday, because it's a dead day in the sports world.

There are 15 games on the MLB schedule tomorrow, so please check back...

Tuesday, May 25 at 8:45am

Dogs won two of four MLB contests Monday, and a 50% encore today would be nice!

Tuesday's picks:

(MLB) 1610 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 8.5
1710 909 Houston Astros +145 9.5
1740 912 Colorado Rockies +110 9.5
1905 914 San Diego Padres +110 6.5
1710 926 KC Royals +120 9.5
(NBA) 1800 516 Phoenix Suns +110 1.5/221
(WNBA) 1600 652 Tulsa Shock +170 4.5/178.5

Tulsa is a long shot added to make up my 7-dog string, and if they pull off a win at +170, they will be worthy of their name...!

Wednesday, May 26 at 11:45am

Tuesday brought yet another four right bets out of seven, but while 5x got a nice boost, it was no help to 50x because the wins did not "line up" optimally.

It's tough to lose when you were right more often than you were wrong, but entirely "normal" for sports betting (unfortunately!).

No picks for today, Wednesday, because the odds on most underdogs are too short to be viable.

Say what?

Well, the whole purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that odds well above even money will over time offset the fact that underdogs have about a 10% disadvantage compared to their more popular rivals.

On the other hand, odds offered on favorites are so short on average that a 10% advantage over underdogs is not enough to enable a regular punter to make a profit.

I will go as low as +105 if I have to, but I am never happy about it.

I have not run the numbers in several weeks, but the last time I checked, dog odds between +110 and +145 showed the best results.

On the InvestaPick front, the mystery deepens - today makes it a full month without a single posted pick for any of the three featured "sports funds."

I can't hazard a guess as to what's going on.

What I do know is what I have known almost from the start: target betting works better with IP's selections than their method does.

But not, of course, when no bets are placed...

Thursday, May 27 at 10:10am

Wouldn't you know it - yesterday the baseball dogs win rate (DWR) was 75%!!!

I was not wild about any of the bets, which shows that after all these months, I know about as much or as little as anyone else about how the finals list will look.

Today's the last day of our family knees-up and life should start to return to normal tomorrow, after we have delivered our visitor to Reno-Tahoe Airport for a pre-dawn flight half way round the world to her normality.

Here are Thursday's bets, which should do well because today happens to be my wife's birthday and our wedding anniversary!

(MLB) 1010 901 Houston Astros +120 9
1120 903 LA Dodgers +105 7
1535 909 St. Louis Cards +105 7
1610 916 NY Mets +115 7.5
1610 919 Chicago WS +145 8.5
1610 921 KC Royals +150 9.5
1710 924 Minnesota Twins +105 9

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._