Read between the ads, and you will find the casinos' true message: "You can't win so don't waste time trying. Just learn how to love losing."

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Here's a question for anyone out there who fits the gambling industry's profile of the perfect punter.

Which is riskier: Betting to a $1,000 table limit, and then hoping your luck will change while you are at the max, or switching locations so you can make even bigger bets - up to $25,000! - until you recover past losses and can fall back to a minimum bet?

OK, OK, the answer is obvious because of who's asking the question, but let's look at facts confirmed in the latest BST challenge.

In the first session logged below, a target betting player following the current rules variation (see the second screen shot for details) would have won $4,208 on total action of $31,778, which is +13.2%. Betting the BST table limit would have resulted in a LOSS of $2,500 on total action of $237,500 (-1.05%).

The target bettor's average bet value would have been $136. His "cautious" counterpart's ABV would have been $1,019 (higher than the table limit because of splits/doubles).

In the split session that preceded this one, the numbers were: (Part A) Target betting +$4,905/$30,615 = +16.02% ABV $114; BST Lim +$4,875/$33,815 = +14.4% ABV $126; (Part B) Target +$5,265/$123,055 = +4.28% ABV $136; BST Lim -$23,413/$187,878 = -12.5% ABV $1,019.

The lesson, once again: Tight spreads will kill you!!!

(Click on any image to enlarge it)



I'm in this to shake up the conventional wisdom and encourage as many people as possible to see for themselves that they are being hung out to dry, fleeced, conned and otherwise deliberately misdirected whenever they gamble.

I am not suggesting that they shouldn't visit casinos and bet when they feel like it, just that they would be better off with a full knowledge of what is involved.

Comparative numbers like those quoted here will be reflected throughout the scores of data sets featured in this blog, covering close to 400,000 "real play" outcomes in all. That is around four years of betting for a full time gambler, and a lifetime's worth for most weekend punters!

For now, let's just look back to "Batch #15," the last full set of rounds (8,020) from BST sessions. Target betting "won" (in quotes because no one has sent me a check yet) $172,398/$3.04m = +5.67%, ABV $380; table limit per BST would have lost $44,573/$5.26m = -0.85%, ABV $655.




If you remain unconvinced and need more evidence, just drop me a line.

I know there are people out there who truly believe that all this study and analysis drains the fun out of gambling, turning it into a chore rather than rest and relaxation.

Maybe. But in my experience (and I have had a lot of it) winning is a whole lot more fun than losing.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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