One of the pitfalls of blackjack is that a player can make decisions that are so bad that he helps the house get its hands on his bankroll a little sooner. In most table games, when to bet on what and how much are the player's only choices, and that is more than enough pressure, thank you very much.
Something else that is unique about blackjack is that almost everyone who plays it thinks he or she is an expert, and feels qualified to tell other people what to do with their money.
My preference is to play one-on-one against the dealer whenever possible, or else to ignore what other players are doing and concentrate on the job at hand, which is to win a little money while attracting as little attention as possible.
In the end, while making smart hit or stand decisions is helpful, it all comes down to how you bet, not how you play.
And it isn't the piddling house edge (barely 1.0%) that will do you in at blackjack, it's having a bankroll that is too small to take you through occasional house spikes (prolonged negative trends) that may be offset by an opposite pattern too late to save your ass.
A good rule of thumb is never to bet less than 20% of your current loss to date (LTD), but that's a move that can be discussed at another time.
What I want to say here is that practice makes perfect, and in my opinion there's no more perfect way to practice online than with Ken Smith's Blackjack Strategy Trainer.
Eccentric as I am, I generally choose to play against a shoe rather than the single deck that the self-styled experts prefer. I like the streaks that can set in with a shoe and last for a dozen or more rounds (less likely with a single deck and all that shuffling!).
Lately, single-deck layouts in Nevada have tended to drop the natural pay-out rate from 3-2 to 6-5, an outrageous gouge that offends me to the roots of what little hair I have left (a 60% pay cut, aggghhhhh!) so I am even more likely to pick a shoe.
If your online connection is up to it, a useful way to imitate the multi-table environment of a casino is to load BST in several tabs and switch your LTD/NB numbers from one to the other as win-loss patterns dictate.
I turn off insurance (of course) in the BST options, and also the on-screen "coach" because there are several recommendations that I flat-out disagree with.
It is not necessary to play through each series from an opening minimum bet to EOS over and over again, as I do, because all the recorded outcomes will be plugged in to a spreadsheet eventually and the correct target bets will be processed there. All you really need is the outcomes in a chronological log.
My choice happens to be to bet as if the money was real, partly because I enjoy the practice, but also because there's a lot of satisfaction in repeatedly seeing a crappy set of outcomes being turned into a notional profit!
I would certainly welcome scanned pencil logs from anyone who cares to submit them! Mine look like this:
I may not be neat, but I get it all written down! Pushes matter because I double the bet, adding up to $100, after a push, not because I think I have a better chance of winning (of course I don't) but for the fun of it.
Xs with a ring around them indicate a dealer natural, which also prompts a doubled bet, and I even bump the bet after a dealer 21 with 3+ cards, using the push rule (NB=PBx2 to a max of PB+$100).
A line under an outcome signifies EOS. And a quick glance at any log confirms the clumping or streaking patterns that make target betting so effective.
Remember that the LTD+ bet in response to a mid-series win is the key to target betting's consistent success, and while quirky bumps push bet values higher, they also fatten the bottom line.
You can make the bet-by-bet strategy as simple or as complicated as you want, either just for the fun of it or to confound anyone who's watching too closely, just as long as you don't mess with the LTD+ "engine" at the heart of it all.
One thing to watch out for with the BST app is an annoying little flaw that doesn't mess you up often but is infuriating when it does. If when the screen prompt offers you the option to add another $1,000 to your depleted bankroll, you click ever so slightly to the right of the $ button, you will accidentally quit the session instead, wiping out all of the stats. It's too easy to do, if you have left your cursor where it was when you last opted to stand, and you click before moving it to the "money button". The glitch needs a fix, but I am too grateful to Mr. Smith for his neat little game to bug him with a complaint!
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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