I'm not trying to be controversial; I am just telling the logical, numerate, mathematical, obvious truth.
Also obvious is that only progressive betting can get you back in the black if you're in the hole, because flat bets cannot work without blind luck, and blind luck is nobody's friend for long.
Another thing: I have put dozens of hours of blackjack and baccarat practice sessions on the Pattern Betting YouTube channel, and I still get comments and emails saying, "What do I do if...?"
What you do is watch the demos!
The pattern betting strategy is so simple it is almost embarrassing, but to make life even easier for the handful of folks looking for the truth about beating casino house games, I plan to post instructions with every new PB video presentation from now on.
Two numbers matter at all times while you are challenging negative expectation--DOWN (the value of the current hole you are in) and OUT (the value of the next bet). Keep these amounts constantly in mind, and make sure D never becomes too big a multiple of O. More about that below.
1. Don't play at all unless you have a very large bankroll and total confidence in the pattern betting method.
2. Set yourself a minimum bet value and a maximum bet value that are as far apart as you can make them--a wide betting spread is essential to a winning progressive strategy, and 1 to 1,000 ($25 to $25,000) is the very least you should aim for. The wider the spread the better.
3. Know this: A huge bankroll alone is no guarantee of success, and a brilliant betting strategy cannot succeed long-term without big money behind it.
4. Every time you achieve your win target (defined as getting out of the hole, plus a modest profit) fall back to your minimum bet and get ready for another battle against the odds.
5. Start with a minimum bet (say $25).
6. If B1 (bet #1) wins, add $25 and add another $25 after each win.
7. When a plus streak ends, repeat the bet.
8. If the repeated bet wins, fall back to your minimum and start over.
9. If the repeat bet tanks, make the combined value of the two losses your DOWN, and add (say) $100 to get your next OUT value.
Example: +25, +50, +75, +100, -125, -125, +400.
10. After any three consecutive losses, pull back to a bet that can be as low as your minimum but ideally should not be less than 20% (or a fifth) of your DOWN.
11. Repeat the reduced bet value until a win.
12. In response to a mid-recovery win, resume betting at the pre-fallback level, and re-double until turnaround or a third consecutive loss, which would trigger (10).
Every demo session follows these rules, except when I make a dumb mistake, which you will too unless you are a perfect player (in which case, what are you doing reading this!).
Pattern betting is much simpler than a list of rules makes it sound.
It is also flexible. As long as you, the player and the one with the money, do not break the critical relationship between those DOWN and OUT numbers, you can be cautious when you feel the need, and you can round up bet values (within reason and without greed!) to improve your overall win at turnaround.
Just bet smart. That's key. And always drop down to your minimum bet once you hit your win target, even if it means moving to a cheaper table.
Enjoy the demos and remember: Practice Makes Profit.
NOTES:
Nobody wants to bet like a robot, with every move predetermined to the point of monotony! That’s why in my demo sessions posted online, you will see me rounding up bet values to ensure a bigger payback when the going gets tough, and running away from shoes that turn really nasty.
The PB models bet every round in every shoe, patiently plodding through losing streaks that seem like they will never end. Easy for an algorithm, but less fun for a human being.
Ultimately, every bet you or even a robot puts on the table faces the same negative expectation, and nothing you can do can change that obvious mathematical truth. So, when you pull back or pull out under pressure, there is no reason to believe that conditions will improve when you resume betting. Hopefully, what will improve after a break is your state of mind, and that is almost as important to your long-term success as a big, fat bankroll.
Pattern betting works consistently well against blackjack, craps, and roulette as well as baccarat, but baccarat may be your best overall choice because it is where the money is, and where heat from paranoid dealers and pit bosses is far less than at blackjack.
My baccarat models test PB betting PLAYER all the way, BANKER all the way, and using the HOP, my name for a tactic whereby after, say, three consecutive losses on BANKER you switch your bets to PLAYER and vice-versa (never bet on the TIE unless you are in a particular hurry to lose your money). I back PLAYER whenever I can because of the high cost of commission—which you must know is far greater than 5% when the dealing is done.
Yes, BANKER wins more often, but the house gouge eliminates whatever advantage uneducated players might assume can be derived from that illusory edge.
As for the HOP, tests against countless tens of thousands of random baccarat rounds confirm that switching back and forth can greatly reduce or even overcome the built-in negative expectation for PLAYER bets, but the so-called five percent commission rake will always take its toll, and you can be sure it will never be as low as five percent of your winnings.
Remember the gambler’s worst enemies: greed, ignorance, stupidity (not the same as ignorance)—and “free” booze. Never belly up to a casino table game unless you are well rested, cool, calm, and confident. And backed by a honking great bankroll, of course.
One of the critical keys to pattern betting’s success is the rule that once your win target is in the bag, you must revert to your minimum bet (your choice) and start the winning process all over again.
Never be tempted to up your minimum, assuming that a bigger opening amount will ensure more profit at the end of the day. Progressive betting (and that is what pattern betting is, in essence) makes its money from big mid-recovery bets that would not be as high as they are if you were not at the wrong end of an anomalous losing streak. Negative streaks, like positive ones, never last forever, and constant rounding up and tweaking along the way to recovery will see to it that when two or three consecutive wins come along, your turnaround will be worth the wait.
Ideally, your betting spread should be at least 1 to 1,000--$5 to $5,000, $25 to $25,000, and so on—and the wider you can make it, the better off you will be when a deck or a shoe throws its worst at you.
You will from time to time be in a situation where the next bet required by the strategy exceeds the current table limit. Never, ever be tempted to bet less than the rules require. Instead, step back from the game, and take your chips and your DOWN and OUT numbers to a new location and resume betting at the proper level. You will get the hang of it as your bankroll grows, boosting your skill and your confidence.
We are back to where we started: Random betting against random outcomes cannot win in the long run. Betting smart will make you a winner.
I’d wish you good luck, but you won’t need it. Good play will get you where you need to be.
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as (ugh) Stake, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.
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