Tuesday, August 24, 2010

We're on another rollercoaster ride, with big wins one day and a cliff-drop the next. What's the alternative? Looks like there isn't one!

(Please scroll down for target betting picks for Thursday, August 26)

I have been saying for more years than I can count that high risk is an inevitable component of any and all forms of gambling.

It is an unpalatable truth that is only a little less true if you happen to be a bookie or a casino, and can hedge your bets most of the time.

Yet almost every day, I hear about another "low risk" or "can't lose" proposition that claims to eliminate all those pesky ups and downs, replacing them with a steady stream of wins climbing skyward like the yellow brick road to Oz.

I just wish one of them actually worked.

The most impressive steady winner I have come across so far is the InvestaPick three-pick plan - until its creators mysteriously stopped posting data at the end of April, then came back to life with a bang in July, playing catch-up with bets that avoided the nuisance factor of real time.

Since then, there have been days when InvestaPick shows "Pick Posted" on its website without those picks appearing in its next day updates.

Still and all, I continue to give IP the benefit of the doubt, because just like all you folks out there, I dream of profits without risk, aka gain without pain.

What I find most impressive about InvestaPick's published results is that they were achieved from hundreds of picks paying less than even money.

In essence, the three "funds" use a simple Martingale, benefiting from the mathematical fact that while shorter odds mean smaller paybacks, they also bring more frequent wins.

From time to time, I have posted comparisons between the results achieved the IP way, and my modification of IP's method, which requires prior losses (LTDs in target betting lingo) to be fully recovered before the next bet in a sequence falls back to the minimum.

Around the end of the month, I will update the numbers and post them again.

Meanwhile, here are target betting's picks for today, Tuesday, August 24:

Wednesday, August 25 at 10:15am

Yesterday turned out to be a great day for target betting, less because of the 50% WR from four right picks out of eight, but because of our three good friends, timing, timing and timing.

Wins from bets 1 and 8 lined up with maximum wagers, shooting the method's green line skyward once again.

I can't deliver precise details because my long-in-completion bet calculator blew another gasket yesterday, and a mysterious infection that has me scarfing anti-biotics has left me too cross-eyed to cope with the task of finding the right fix.

Hasn't stopped me from finding more picks for today, though!

Timing really is critical, and it is always a sure thing that eventually, big wins will hit where they are most needed and the target betting principle will be vindicated once again.

Eventually can be a very expensive word, at least for a while, but recovery is made possible by bets that sometimes carry a lot of zeroes, but are never larger than they need to be.

It really is silly to envision a strategy that can avoid digging a deep hole at some point, a delusion matched in dumbness by the notion that cumulative losses can be recovered by making only safe bets in small amounts.

In this business, what the hell is a safe bet anyway?

Look back just a few days in the current baseball season (or any other!) and you will find results that stunned the bookies as much as they did the punters who lost their shirts on them.

At least we hope that the bookies were taken by surprise, in spite of the fact that it is their coffers that get a big fat boost when the so-called underdog thrashes the presumed favorite by 9-1 or whatever (see Chicago Cubs over Washington Nationals two days ago, for example).

Wednesday's bets:

(With thanks to Scoresandodds.com)

Update at 3:00pm Wednesday:

OK, so I munched on my drugs at lunchtime and while the bugs in my bod are still making me feel pretty rotten, the bugs in the bet calculator seem to have been vanquished.

At least until the next little bugger (hah!) pops up...

Turns out Tuesday's win was not quite enough to offset Monday's dip, and right now, today's picks are looking a tad iffy.

If the Atlanta Braves manage to hold onto their 2-run lead, the damage should not be too bad, but they are under almost as much pressure as I am!

The chart for the current state of the bankroll would make me nauseous if I wasn't sick already, but at least we're still in the green (sorry, but in my book, black is not the color of money).

Thursday, August 26 at 9:45am

Ultra-slim pickings today, but enough to keep the pot boiling:

Yesterday, the Braves not only gave up the two-run lead they need to make my run-line bet a winner, but handed the win to the other guys!

But hey, there's always today...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._