Wednesday, August 4, 2010

I'd say 9 right picks out of 12 was a good day, wouldn't you? A fluke, maybe, but perhaps "capping" isn't as hard as its practitioners pretend!

Tuesday was a highlight in the new target betting mix of run-line and money-line bets, which is now just 11 days along.

It was great to watch all those winners scroll down the screen as I checked the day's finals before bedtime.

Nine out of 12 is a solid 75% win rate, and in percentage terms it does not match the 6/7 (86%) I achieved several times - if not often enough! - during the nine-month 7-dog trial.

But I'm a happy punter, that's for sure.

One great day does not prove anything, of course, any more than target betting's more than $9,000 in monthly profits from the 7DT is a cast-iron guarantee of future bookie-beating.

What it does emphasize is that more often than not, using the numbers the bookies provide is an effective way to pick winners without having to pay cappers or develop a migraine studying form.

Once the numbers are up in the morning, it takes me maybe five minutes to mark up the lineup and get all my bets in a row.

I just sent "Peter Punter" an analysis of TOM's progress since early July (TOM being The Other Method, for those who have not been paying attention!) and the data ain't pretty.

The experienced, savvy old pros behind the method have picked 170 run-line selections and 83 money-line bets in the past month.

RL bets won about 42% of the time and made a profit (based on a $5,000 opening bankroll and bet values in strict accordance with the method rules) of $1,400.

ML bets, on the other hand, were a total disaster: a 25.3% WR resulted in a loss of $4,430 which the RL profit could not cover, leaving TOM down $3,035 since July 5 and fast running out of that $5,000 buy-in.

In contrast, target betting made 43 RL bets in the last 11 days, winning 40% of them, and its 81 ML picks had a 51% WR.

I favor money-line bets on dogs over run-line bets on favorites, but I'm having a great time mixing the two for the first time since "Peter Punter" came up with the idea via TOM (or vice versa?).

The dollar numbers for target betting are provisional until later today when hopefully I'll have the bugs out of the template, but since July 24, both RL (+$740) and ML (+$2,196) bets are comfortably in the black.

I say "provisional" because I want to get today's pick list posted before time runs out on all 14 selections.

Again, sorry some games are already off, but the way things work these days is that I fire the bet list out via e-mail as soon as I have solid odds data, then have to process all the wagers before I can get around to this blog.

If anyone would like to get the bet info well ahead of all game times, just e-mail me at and I will add your name to the distribution list.

The morning sheet won't include recommended bet amounts for a while yet, but the picks ("M" or "R") come across loud and clear.

There is no charge for any of this, per the long-established spirit of this blog, and if any readers get rich with my method, I will be happy for them. (The one bad thing about freebies, of course, is that there can't be a money back guarantee!).

Here are today's selections:

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._