Wednesday, December 2, 2009

"You should have taken the money and run when you were three grand ahead. You'll never see a number that high again!"

The whole point of this project is to demonstrate that this is an ongoing process that does not deviate from a disciplined plan and is exempt from both panic and greed!

All the data so far collected from past and present MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL seasons confirms that while "dog slumps" are inevitable, recovery from them is equally certain.

The situation the 7-dog trial is in right now ($4,200 below its highest point with more than $7,000 tied up in unresolved LTDs) cannot be interpreted as proof of a permanent slide, any more than last week's high point was proof that the concept is unbeatable.

This is a long-term proposition, not a hit-and-run adventure, and only time will tell whether or not following the rules day by day is as effective a strategy as the arithmetic suggests it is.

It's really not that much different from a cautious long-term foray into stocks and shares: Some days you're up, some days you're down, and once in a while you have to dig a little deeper to keep the plan on track.

As I said last time, when underdogs get slammed across the board, bookies get slammed too, and their business is about as long-term as a business can be.

Working on today's dog picks highlighted what might be the bookies' response to the dearth of dog wins in recent days!

Odds on favorites seem to have shortened quite dramatically, with underdogs naturally becoming longer shots on the other side of each equation.

I don't usually pay much attention to odds quoted outside of my +100 to +180 comfort zone, but I will look into that question more closely when I have the time.

Meanwhile, yesterday's selection lopped just a couple of units off the current loss figure, and the day was made more complicated by a series of careless mistakes I made when I was marking up dog picks.

I had a couple of favorites in the mix, which is not permitted and certainly was not intentional, so even though they won (rats!) I had to delete them and replace them with the correct bets.

That meant that instead of climbing out of the hole by more than 5u, I had to settle for a lot less.

Let's face it, accuracy is more important than a few hundred bucks here or there.

The only good news is that the errors went all the way to the bookie's window, which means I get to keep the paltry winnings even though they could not fairly be reflected in the 7-dogs-a-day trial!

No one likes making mistakes, and I am no exception, but with all that's involved in an enterprise like this, occasional slip-ups are pretty much inevitable.

I will try to do better...

Here's the current chart summary for the sports betting file that is updated twice a day at Google Docs. I have to add viewers at my end before the file can be accessed, so anyone who wants to join the party should e-mail me.

Thursday, December 3, 10:35am:

O crappy day!

Great news for dognostics: Yesterday pushed us another 10u-plus into the hole as the dog slump continued.

There were just two underdog wins in 14 basketball and hockey games, and we picked both of them.

A 14% DWR could not possibly be expected to stem the tide of red ink, and all we can do now is wait patiently for the inevitable "correction."

Thursday's picks are: pro-football's Buffalo Bills (+145), Boston Celtics (+105) and Golden State Warriors (+115) from the three-match basketball schedule, and Vancouver Canucks (+125), Toronto Maple Leafs (+140), NY Islanders (+135) and Anaheim Ducks (+120) on ice.

Hey, how much worse can things get?

Good thing the slump is just temporary...

Saturday, December 5, 11:00am:

Thursday's picks gave back a little, Friday's took it away.

Obviously, things are not going according to plan right now!

It's especially frustrating when the smaller bets win, and the bigger ones don't.

But raising bet values across the board is not likely to make things any better when underdogs fall behind, as they have been doing these past few days.

Since the 6/7 win a week ago Friday, the DWR hit 50% just once, but otherwise has slumped as low as 14% and has averaged far less than 40%.

That's life.

Other than that, it comes as no big surprise that betting and waiting in real time is a lot more stressful than applying target betting rules to thousands of outcomes from the various sports databases.

I would like to make the selection process more subjective, confining max bets to options with the shortest odds.

But I made my bed when I set the rules before the start of this 7-dog trial more than a month ago, and now I have to lie in it...and sweat a little.

Today's picks are all NHL games: Carolina Hurricanes (+145), St. Louis Blues (+125), Detroit Red Wings (+110), Colorado Avalanche (+135), Washington Capitals (+120), New York Islanders (+100) and Chicago Blackhawks (+120).

The test is $2,750 in the hole right now, and today's bets total $3,100. That's a fairly scary situation, but there's comfort to be had from the probability (which of course is never the same as a certainty) that underdogs are due for a comeback.

Obviously, the red ink is flowing deep and wide for bets on all qualifying dogs, rather than just seven every day.

But ironically, betting every dog within the prescribed range would by now have dug a hole barely half as deep as the one we're in now.

That's because when the risk of picking the "wrong" bets, objectively or otherwise, is eliminated, every qualifying win counts.

The 7-dog trial has had several days when underdogs did well overall, but the selection process skipped more winners than losers.

There is not a whole lot to be done about that, outside of tightening the range of odds that determines where each day's money is applied.

Meanwhile, the waiting game continues.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.