Tuesday, December 1, 2009

A 7-dog skunking ends Month #1. But if dogs are losing, so are the poor bookies. And that means the slump can't last!

The 7-dog trial has had a few bad days since it started on November 1, but none as bad as Monday.

Right now, we are just a little better off (by about $900) than we would have been if we had picked every qualifying underdog since Day One.

More importantly, we are only a little worse off than we would have been if we had backed favorites all the way.

What most sports punters overlook is that backing favorites can be a frustrating and expensive proposition.

There were 489 games on the 7-dog betting schedule last month, and favorites won 321 of them.

But in spite of a 66% win rate, a flat-bet punter risking $100 every time on favorites would have ended November $920 in the hole.

There were 291 qualifying dogs last month and 117 winners (40%) averaging $1.29 to the dollar...a whole lot better than the 49 cents favorites paid, on average, but not enough to stem the red tide.

Dog bets within the +100 to +180 range lost $2,303. The 7-dog loss at month's end was just over $1,400.

It is an absolute mathematical certainty that the current dog slump will end.

And nothing makes it more sure than the fact that a disproportionate percentage of favorite wins puts a big fat dent in the bookies' bottom line.

My heart doesn't bleed for the bookies and never will, but as long as their success means money in the bank for me, I am still rooting for them!

This is also as good a test as my dogcentric strategy will ever get.

Skeptics would have bailed out long ago, assuming they'd ever got started on this.

But the trial is a long-term test and better days are ahead.

It does not require genius-level computer smarts to come up with a simulation that tests the arithmetic that underpins the all-dogs concept.

First, you need a column of random numbers that sets the payback value between +100 and +180.

Then alongside that, wins and losses with a negative expectation around 10%, and next to that a column that applies the simple target betting rules.

There will be tough times, for sure, just like the slump that has us temporarily on the ropes right now.

But every time, the math will set things right eventually.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.