Tuesday, August 22, 2023

You can show a gambler the facts, but you can't make him or her give a damn! (Unless he or she actually wants to win).

 

The new Pattern Betting gambling info channel on YouTube is starting to attract a little attention, but I am not holding my breath--for years, I have been saying here that less than 1% of recreational gamblers actually want to win, and those that do are often reluctant to embrace new ideas.

Pattern betting (or Target/Turnaround as I prefer to call it when there's room for a few extra words!) is not really a dramatic breakthrough but an adaptation of progressive betting that greatly reduces risk and improves long-term viability.

Regular readers will know my mantra about winning more when you win than you lose when you lose to offset the harm that can be done by losing more bets than you win (an inevitability) but in YouTube country, no one seems to understand that if you don't bet progressively, you are certain to lose in the end.

I have been particularly absorbed by the antics of a hugely popular live-stream gambler who plays like an absolute idiot, has no betting strategy whatsoever, moans endlessly about his piss-poor luck, but somehow attracts a regular audience in the hundreds of thousands.

Am I jealous of his success?  Well, I know I would be if he was winning, but instead his schtick is to throw huge junks of cash at some of the worst betting options around, perhaps to persuade suckers who are watching to join him on the clifftop and jump along with him, and I can't watch his regular car crashes for too long at one time.

My connection with Baccarat WinPro got nowhere, because much as I enjoy their sim and the analysis tools they provide, I am not about to maintain a paid subscription when I have plastered free publicity all over the place for them!

No damage, because along the way I discovered a new source called BNB Simulation, a YT channel which has an archive of tens of thousands of shoes of baccarat and also offers real-time play against an impressive simulation.  The only downside is the constant distraction of ads, but we all need to make a living!

And of course, there's always the Wizard of Odds baccarat sim, which, fickle as I am, I abandoned when I discovered BWP.

I started this week by playing three Wiz shoes in succession and recording the results to post on the Pattern Betting channel, and it was something of a surreal experience--three fat wins in a row, each for the same amount, $2,700.  It amounted to a profit of $8,100 in less than an hour!

As regular readers here will know, two key Target/Turnaround rules that keep danger at bay to a high degree are 3-play and the fallback to a minumum bet after a win target is met.

I have also found a new way to describe something I have been recommending here forever--the notion that if you are getting your butt kicked with no end apparently in sight, you just take up thy chips and walk to a different game, always making sure that you resume play at the same betting level so that turnaround remains do-able.

Now, I call it the GAG rule, short for get-up-and-go (sorry, but GUAG doesn't do it for me!).

Let's face it, sometimes you will encounter a run of bad luck that makes you want to GAG in more senses than one...

The BNB shoes, all of them verifiable online, are now fed into an Excel model which enables me to rerun each data set betting solely on Player at first, then only on Banker, then using win-before-last, which the French fancify as 'avant dernier' and which I prefer to call the Wobble using the acronym for win before last.

It makes for interesting info, for me at least, for several thousand blog readers, and for the handful of folks who have found me at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDgiBe3I2xfS93Bg7nHW9EA




 

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.

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