Friday, November 18, 2011

There's a perfectly logical explanation for numbers that prove that running away when the going gets tough is a better idea than sticking around.

(For updated information about Target's ongoing sports betting experiment, please go to the Sethbets website, or click here for an introduction to progressive betting, and here [20] and here [5] for current picks). You can also find a guide to the most basic Target strategy applied to more than 80,000 verifiable baccarat outcomes by visiting Google Docs.

I just posted a new page at Sethbets devoted entirely to the "flight plan" concept as applied to the 1,600 Zumma baccarat "real" shoes and the 2,000 Wizard of Bodog simulated shoes, with eye-popping charts that make it easy to see that flight is right, and no might about it.

Here's my conclusion after reviewing all the data:

"To anyone who responds to the charts and numbers on this page with a suggestion that I somehow fiddled or fudged the data to support my long-stated belief that the house edge is not invincible, there's not a whole lot I can say!
My time in the quirky, largely deluded world of Baccarat Forums taught me that the most vocal "contributors" are also the ones least likely to give a fair-minded hearing to anyone else's ideas, especially if they see a direct conflict with their own hallowed beliefs.
All of my worksheets are available for inspection and verification, except for those which contain algorithms that are my unique intellectual property (in which case, all output will be provided, but formulas will have been redacted, as the CIA likes to put it).
There can be no practical or material benefits from producing fraudulent data, and the only reason I mention that option at all is that on BF, the loudest voices were those with evident problems grasping the simplest principles of arithmetic. Good manners eluded them too, but that's really their problem, no one else's.
The Zumma helped/hurt and skip percentages (see above) were 60% and 32%.
Matching numbers from the WOB 8-deck 1,000 - to your left - were 64% and 32%, and for the WoB 6-deck sample (above) we get 60% and 25%.
Why does skipping, fleeing, dodging, evading or avoiding a losing streak that might get worse before it gets better greatly reduce the overall house edge?
The overall reduction for the samples on this page is from an average of 1.27% to an average of 0.24%, a drop in the overall HA of more than 80%.
I think that logic supports the results from this limited trial, and that the logic used to support the opposite view is therefore proven false.
The "flight plan" only kicks in when a worsening HA is probable but not certain (if we knew for sure, we'd be psychic and would find a quicker way to make money!).
Positive trends are NOT avoided, and since it is statistically certain that overall, the number of positive trends will exactly match the number of negative ones, if we only run away from negative ones but at the same time do not skip more than half of all possible bets, we will (logically) drive down the overall house edge. QED!"

Based upon what I have seen so far, I'm willing to predict that if I were to adjust the trigger sensitivity from -5 (meaning that the house gets five bets ahead in the current shoe or session) to a smaller value that resulted in half of all bets being skipped instead of less than 30%, the beneficial effects of the move would pretty much evaporate.

I'm relying on logic again: Right now, we've seen the effects of playing 70% of all dealt rounds and can conclude from the consistent 60-40 "helped" ratio that we have avoided slightly more negative trends than positive ones.

In the remaining 70% of all rounds, the number of negative and positive patterns will be about equal, while in the 30% we skipped, we have confirmation that there were more negatives than positives.

Add all that together, and you end up with significant downward pressure on the overall house edge by a value that's tiny in itself, but dramatic as a percentage of the overall negative expectation for the game of baccarat.

I don't have the means to produce tens or hundreds of thousands of simulated or real shoes in order to extend this test.

But there are plenty of people out there who do, and perhaps they will stumble on the flight plan concept and see fit to evaluate it fairly and accurately with their superior resources!

That's a naive hope, perhaps, since the great majority of people with those skills and resources seem to devote them exclusively to "proving" that the house edge is unbeatable in the long run.

But hope springs eternal, especially in gamblers...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._