Tuesday, October 25, 2011

When you tell the truth to some defenders of the conventional wisdom, and back it up with meticulous, accurate math, they can get very nasty indeed!

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(For updated information about Target's ongoing sports betting experiment, please go to the Sethbets website, or click here for an introduction to progressive betting, and here [20] and here [5] for current picks). You can also find a guide to the most basic Target strategy applied to more than 80,000 verifiable baccarat outcomes by visiting Google Docs.

They say a soft answer turneth away wrath.

Well, that might have worked in Biblical times, but in this Internet age, telling the truth and proving it doesn't impress people who seem to have a vested interest in peddling the myth that there's no way to beat the house edge in the end.

Here's my Baccarat Forums response to an angry, intemperate and abusive chap who repeatedly refuses to look at the mathematical corroboration I provide every day while offering not one shred of his own:

Why progressive betting is the ONLY long-term winning strategy.

This new thread is concerned primarily with honesty, transparency and accurate math.

But I have to say up front that it is partially in response to one of the more abusive contributors to this curious cacophony who recently wrote: “I have given away thousands of systems to hundreds of people.”

That’s a boast that confirms that its author has spent many years cynically and deliberately distracting, misleading and misinforming gamblers all over the world, and aims to keep right on doing it.

I have in the past three weeks provided dozens of links to meticulously-checked proofs that my version of progressive betting (I call it Target, in case you’re new here) has prevailed against tens of thousands of shoes of baccarat contained in verifiable data sets that are in the public domain.

The guy who has “given away thousands of systems” knows, just as every casino operator knows, that progressive betting is the only real and credible long-term threat to the effects of the house advantage.

I stress the word effects because in any casino game of chance, the house advantage will always be there. It’s how it is neutralized and then reversed that is the “secret” behind progressive betting generally and Target particularly.

Target, of course, has not been kept secret. And neither has the proof that it works.

Unfortunately, a few people who post to this forum have made it their business to bombard the rest of us with drivel designed to hide the clear and honest truth that there is a way to win consistently in a casino.

Another quote from the source of thousands of systems (all of them worthless if they don’t have progressive betting at their core): “...your system is quite PRACTICAL! 5 000 units to win 1 unit, now THAT is wise advice!”

Those words echo what you’ll hear from a dealer or other pit critter if you attempt to apply progressive betting in any casino anywhere.

You will be singled out for kindhearted, concerned counsel about the harm you’re likely to be doing yourself, while all around you drunks and other idiots flush their money away without a compassionate word from casino personnel.

The reason for that is simple: You, along with the drunks and fools, are certain in the long run to lose more bets than you win, and if you bet fixed amounts or randomly, you are also certain to lose more money than you win.

But if you are consistently able to win back in one or two bets what you lost in three or four, you will not only neutralize the effect of the house edge – you will reverse it.

The proud systems donor keeps asking me for proof, proof, proof.

Every post I put up on BF includes links to detailed proof, proof, proof (including 83,640 lines of bets against 1,000 baccarat shoes that are available online for anyone to cross-check).

But Systems Giveaway Guy (SGG) ignores the proof time after time – as perhaps he should, because it makes nonsense of his every argument.

Meanwhile, the only “proof” he has offered is 70 or so lines of bets with a 49% house advantage against which he maliciously misapplied the rules of Target, at one point placing a wager of more than 100,000 units.

Given the harsh reality of all games of chance – the fact that over time, you will lose more bets than you win – know this: you will only make a long-term profit if you consistently bet in such a way that you win more money when you win than you lose when you lose.

That’s not an opinion, or even a revolutionary idea. It’s a cold, hard, mathematical truth.

Another cold, hard, mathematical truth is that from time, you will be required to place some very large bets in defense of your bankroll. Unpalatable, yes. Avoidable, no.

My posts have provided clear and irrefutable mathematical proof that time and time again, if you bet a 1 to 5,000 spread, you will in fact put less money in play (and therefore significantly reduce your overall exposure) than if you spread 1 to 50.

In some of the models I have posted (all of which use verifiable data sets from either Zumma Publishing or Bodog’s principal promoter, the Wizard of Odds) spreading 1 to 5,000 is actually less “dangerous” than a 1 to TEN spread.

I have also put up multiple summaries of play against verifiable outcomes that show that Target bets at low levels more than 95% of the time, and that the average recovery is achieved in six bets or less, often when the house has won four bets against Target’s two.

But SGG won’t acknowledge any truth that conflicts with his mission to mislead and mess up as many gamblers as he possibly can on as many gambling discussion groups as he can pollute.

SGG spreads his relentless disinformation all over the Internet. I have some of his other “handles” and have not checked his activities elsewhere. But it is a safe bet that his abusive, intemperate mischief is not confined to Baccarat Forums.

Back to facts: Nothing you can do can change the sad truth that when the dealing’s done, you will have lost more bets than you won. You can bob and weave and chase patterns and trends, you can randomly raise and lower your bets all you want, and over time, the house will have your hide.

If you don't bet progressively according to a consistent, disciplined plan, you will lose your money however smart and experienced you might believe yourself to be.

SGG is obsessed with the question of whether or not Banker wins more bets than Player in baccarat, and of course it does. I have never denied that.

But does betting Banker with Target – not all of the time, but just some of the time - win more money than betting Player all of the time with Target? Absolutely not.

Even flat betting Banker all the time will end in a loss, as SGG well knows, because the 5% commission on Banker wins is in place solely to offset any benefit derived from winning more often than you lose.

Again, not an opinion, but a demonstrable fact in support of which I have provided ample proof.

But SGG won’t see it, because it doesn’t suit whatever muddled and malicious agenda he brings to BF.

Another SGG quote: “Actually asshole, honesty is my middle name.”

Honesty requires us all to tell the truth, to examine facts presented in good faith, and to make an unbiased evaluation of an idea based on verifiable information rather than on bias or prejudice.

Sorry, SGG, you’re out of the running.

Lastly, the totally irrelevant question of my “true identity” – tossed into this discussion, along with all the other nonsense, to distract members and visitors from the only issue that matters (beating the house is generally accepted as the goal we all share).

Everyone posting to this board uses a handle that conceals his or her real name, not out of fear or shame or to be deceptive, but because we all value (and have a right to) our privacy.

SGG and Egalite both use that form of concealment, and do the same with their e-mail addresses, again as many of us do in defense of our privacy.

I am absolutely unashamed of the honest and fact-based contributions I have made in recent years to the ongoing quest to consistently beat casino games of chance.
But I also recognize that many people with whom I do business consider gambling to be the pursuit of fools, in spite of the fact that many of them risk (and have recently lost!) millions on the stock market.

So, I chose to exercise my right to my privacy, while making certain that every claim I make here, in my blog or elsewhere, is supported by verifiable data.

Because SGG and Egalite are more concerned with making mischief than making a useful contribution to this and other discussion groups, they chose to “out” me as Ian Harmer, creator of a long-established progressive betting method known as Turnaround.

Their motive matters more to me than any damage that might be done to me by their petty malice.

I can prove – and have proved – my fact-based ideas to more people than SGG has harmed and confused with his worthless “systems” and I will continue to state the truth and prove it on this forum for as long as I choose to do so.

One truth is that, unlike SGG and Egalite, I have allowed my approach to the house-beating challenge that concerns us all to evolve and improve over the years.

Turnaround was a worthy step on the way to Target, one that also up-ended the house edge consistently and profitably. But it was way too cluttered and complicated.

As computers evolved too, I was able to confirm against countless real and simulated bets that all that really threatens the house advantage in games of chance is the correct betting response to paired – or “twin” – wins.

Obviously, when the first win comes along in mid-recovery, you can’t know for sure that another win will immediately follow it. But the one-two combo happens so often, so reliably, that if all a player does is exploit that frequent occurrence, he will turn the house edge on its ear.

Casinos know that, and so do the people who try to commandeer this forum and twist it into the verbal equivalent of an infantile food fight.

All I can ask readers to do is to look at the facts and make an honest and unbiased judgment to the best of their ability. And in spite of it all, I have great faith in that ability!


Keep winning!

Seth T.

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An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._