Saturday, September 25, 2010

The latest real-time sports book trial ended Thursday - but Friday's target betting results were just too good to ignore! Hey, I'm in charge here...

[I am no longer posting daily selections and finals
here - but I'm still an enthusiastic winning patron
of my local bookies]

All joking aside, the whole purpose of this blog and the countless samples and examples posted here is to demonstrate that losing more often than you win does not have to mean losing more money than you win.

Random betting means that in the long run, you can only make a profit if you win more bets than you lose.

And unless you have somehow managed to find the only game in the world with a positive expectation, that's just not going to happen.

Target betting ensures that over time, you will win more money when you win than you lose when you lose, making playing - not gambling - a profitable venture.

Gambling means losing for the vast majority of punters, and strangely, most of those people truly believe that they are having fun in the process.

Maybe they are.

But to me, there is no sense at all (and, for sure, no fun!) in playing a game that you can't beat.

For the first six months, this blog was focused entirely on casino table games, with the primary emphasis on blackjack and baccarat.

Then I started looking at sports betting, which has the great advantage of eliminating the need to spend countless hours in dim-lit casinos, sucking up other folks' cigarette and cigar smoke and (in blackjack, at least) sometimes suffering when they make suicidal mistakes.

In all betting situations, the key to success is the obliteration of subjectivity, replacing it with a method that chooses both bet targets and bet values by the numbers.

In casino games, you have to bet the next hand of cards, roll of the dice or spin of the wheel, but how much you bet each time determines whether or not you make a profit in the long run.

Betting sports, you get to pick what to bet on and when to bet on it as well as the amount to put at risk - and all that choosing makes for a potentially dangerous, expensive game.

Far better to let one set of numbers over which you have no subjective influence - the odds - make your selections for you, and another objective reference (your win target) determine each bet's value.

Subjectivity, aka emotions, hunches, insight and even experience, is the enemy of winning.

But then, regular readers already know all this...

The latest two-month, real time trial of target betting principles applied to the sports book, "officially" ended after finals were in on September 23, and at that point, my opening $5,000 bankroll had ballooned to $24,105.

Not much wrong with that!

But I was disappointed, because the total was about $1,000 shy of the best win to date ($25,430), and the collective unrecovered loss to date (LTD) was almost $10,000.

If only...

Obviously, it was not my plan to stop betting just because I was no longer posting selections ahead of time on this blog - the whole idea was to put more time and energy into winning, not less.

So Friday brought a full bet schedule, putting almost $3,500 in play.

At the end of the day, target betting's tally looked like this:

So even though I shoulda quit posting finals on Thursday, setting a new best win to date called for celebration.

Before a 20-bet schedule meets its fate when all today's playing is done, target betting's current state of winning looks like this:

As always, the most noteworthy numbers cover the average win value vs. the average loss value (+$280/-$175 = 160%) and the comparison between winning days and losing ones (37 profitable days worth an average of $1,220 vs. 26 losers setting me back an average of $930).

Readers are invited to draw their own conclusions.

Meanwhile, I could use some help with target betting's next phase!

From now on, as daily betting continues, I plan to post selections 1-10 minutes after game times, via e-mail and text messages instead of in this blog.

Finals (win or lose, of course) will be distributed the same way on the morning after.

Anyone out there who would like to continue tracking target betting's performance in the real world in real time is invited to e-mail me to be added to the distribution list.

My thinking is that target betting has already proved itself in two major real-time trials stretching over 11 long but exciting and satisfying months.

So there is really no need for me to keep giving away daily selections along with the betting method that can already be found here free, gratis and for no charge!

One last screen shot, showing how the primary 15 series or lines were doing at end of play on Friday:

Just TWO of 15 series or lines containing enough bets to make them worth tracking are in the red after 63 days.

I expect dangling LTDs to be recovered soon (although it's my job to expect that, and today's heavy betting load my thwart my cock-eyed optimism - who knows!).

The most important message in all of this is that stepping back from emotional involvement and betting strictly by the numbers is, in my experience, the only way to win in the long run.

Unless, of course, you get lucky...

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._