Saturday, November 28, 2009

Six right picks out of seven the day after Turkey Day: Another "fluke" - or something to be thankful for that will happen again and again?

As thing stand, before the fourth week of the 7-dog trial comes to an end, we have seen five slumps followed by four complete recoveries.

Yesterday, Friday, November 27, underdogs had an overall NBA+NHL win rate of 50%, and all our money was "on ice."

Six of the seven dogs picked by the numbers were winners, adding 10.5 units to the bankroll and bringing us within 2.5 units of the best win to date.

If this was a Wall Street portfolio, Friday's surge would probably be described as a "correction" brought about by mathematical probability.

Underdogs have been under-performing for most of this month, and it was inevitable that at some point, favorites would suffer a similar slump and the effect would be a return to what long-term statistics have taught us to consider the norm.

Here's the current chart from the 7-dog test:

We're not out of the long grass yet!

The pre-Thanksgiving slide swallowed a large chunk of the month's profits, but now we have four out of seven lines or series fully recovered, with close to $3,600 in unresolved LTDs.

Three of today's seven bets are at the 5u max, so all we can do is hope that the surge in dog wins continues for at least a few more hours.

On the dog list today: the NBA's Bobcats (+150) and Trailblazers (+175) and five hockey picks, NY Islanders (+160), Montreal Canadiens (+165), Ottawa Senators (+115), Calgary Flames (+105) and NY Rangers (+140).

There are some long-shots in there, but all the bets are within the +100 to +180 range suggested as optimal by analysis of thousands of game finals in multiple sports.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.