Thursday was not a great day for the 7-dog trial, but the more aggressive (and practical) rules set is only 25% away from its best win to date, and perhaps the weekend will bring the long-awaited turnaround.
Meanwhile, I am much more excited by the combined results of tests I have been running using all the games in the database to date (or to March 24, at least).
I wanted to know what the effect woulda been if every qualifying selection within three different sets of odds ranges had been been bet day by day, with target betting rules applied.
The data broke out into 15 series - twice the number in the 7-dog trial, and keeping track of that many has been driving me nuts.
The query produced more bets for series one (as many as 500 vs a max of about 150 in the current daily trial) and as expected, Series #2 had fewer bets, Series #3 had fewer still, and so on.
The template for this whole experiment stopped a series in its tracks regardless of whether or not it was still "in recovery" or attempting to climb out of a slump with bets gradually increasing per the target rules.
I have said before that generally, the best dog win rate (DWR) we can hope for is around 45%, which puts us at a -10% disadvantage based on flat bets, but in far less trouble when paybacks higher than even money (all paybacks, in other words) are factored in.
The summary below contains final outcomes for target betting from +100 up, +105 up, and +110 up, indicating both the "floor" and the "ceiling" for qualifying bets.
Check out the hold percentages, which are derived by dividing the result by total action.
Then look at adjusted actual values, which tell us how we would have ended up if every bet had been for the same amount.
DWR is for the dog win rate within each range, and to the right of that is the average EOS, indicating how long, on average, it took a recovery series to get out of the hole (4.05 bets, 4.12 and so on).
Perhaps the most important piece of information is the win/loss column, since the whole purpose of target betting is to ensure that we win more when we win than we lose when we lose.
Average win values are shown, then average loss values, and the relationship between wins and losses is shown on each line: 1.19 tells us that the average win value was 19% higher than the average loss value, for example
The red column indicates the combined value of unrecovered LTDs (losses to date) when all of the 15 series were cut off and our assumption has to be that had each interrupted series been completed, those red values would be turned to black.
I admit I am surprised by these numbers, which is why it has taken me more than a week to double- and triple-check them.
I did not anticipate that wide spreads, such as +100 to +180 in the first block, would do as well, especially given that the wider the odds range applied, the lower the DWR.
The target betting rules are shown in the topmost line and they confirm that a minimum wager of $25 was applied, maxing out at 100x or $2,500.
Average bet values fell far short of the permitted maximum, naturally, and can be deduced from the win and loss columns.
Generally speaking, the wider the odds spread, the greater the total number of selections and ergo the larger the average bet value.
The note at the bottom of every post to this blog makes it clear that I really don't care whether or not readers try my methods, and I certainly don't expect anyone to pay me for information that might conceivably make them a lot of money.
The point of this exercise has always been to use accurate, verifiable math to demonstrate that contrary to the conventional wisdom, losing is not inevitable.
It most certainly is inevitable if bet values are randomly or arbitrarily chosen, but disciplined betting can be seen to be as dramatically effective in sports book betting as it is against casino table games.
It is simply a matter of learning the rules, testing them until they prove trustworthy to the tester as well as to me, then sticking with them through thick and thin.
It takes guts and it takes money, but most of all it requires discipline and commitment.
No one who gambles "for fun" will ever try target betting. I know that. People who want to win and do not feel obliged to lose (in Las Vegas they call it "making a contribution") have something really good to work with here.
If they ignore it, that's their right.
Here's the odds range summary, followed by the latest betting info:-
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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