Ain't life grand! However old you get, there's always something new to learn. When that stops, is it twilight time?

 

My education lately has been coming from YouTube where I have been absolutely wallowing in gambling channels and being regularly gob-smacked by what's out there.

What I have not yet learned is either the purpose or the appeal of channels in which the presenter hurls around great wads of cash willy-nilly against a variety of casino table games, with no discernible betting plan and (surprisingly? Maybe not!) few losing sessions.

Who's watching?  No idea.  But there are tens, even hundreds of thousands of avid subscribers clicking into YouTube every day to gamble vicariously, while the audience for my new Pattern Betting channel remains, um...let's call it 'select'?

Seriously, it's obvious from the tenor and tone of the gambling channels out there that nobody is interested in the nitty-gritty of the numbers that keep the casinos' lights blazing: they just want to HAVE FUN!!! OMG!  LOL!!!

Phew! is what I say.

I have been enjoying feeding outcomes from some of the sessions I have watched into PB models to see what 'coulda, woulda, shoulda' happened if the player in question had bet strategically rather than throwing money around like a drunken sailor working up to a bar-fight!

You will not be amazed to hear that a logical, consistent plan always does better than random betting.

Which brings me to a happy resumption of cordial relations with the creators of Baccarat WinPro...

Here's today's update of a shoes list that is becoming very long indeed:

 

 

It is also becoming very predictable (that of course being what is supposed to happen).

I have no idea how anyone could hope to achieve results like these without progressive betting and, more importantly, my version of it, renamed Pattern Betting for 2023 but in reality still old solid and reliable Target/Turnaround.

As ever, it's all about winning more when you win than you lose when you lose, which as regular readers here will know is the only way you can overcome the red-ink effect of losing more bets than you win in the long run.

Today's two early sessions provide perfect examples of the way things are likely to go in a real-money, real-time encounter with an eight-deck baccarat shoe:

A lot to absorb, I realise, and I hope no one is gagging from sensory overload.

The top snap is old hat for most of you, but my noisy adventures in YouTubeland have reminded me that no one living and playing there seems to see the need to link bet values to a win target, and without that, only blind luck can save you and your bankroll from going over the house edge, so to speak.

There are sensible, sober, strategic players in Las Vegas and other gambling locations, of course, but they are not signing on to or revealing themselves on YouTube, for sure.

I have barely dipped a toe into that choppy sea so far, but there are a few stand-outs, and if anyone's interested drop me a friendly note to sethbets@gmail.com and I will send you some links.

My preference is for presenters who seem to enjoy what they are doing (I had to hit the mute button for one guy who is the Woody Allen of YT gamblers, constantly complaining about his awful luck and oblivious to the fact that his awful play and worse attitude are the real root of his troubles!).

Win or lose, I transcribe outcomes from YT sessions into a notebook, the old-fashioned way, then plug them into the appropriate Excel model.

As the BWP shoe list above shows (look for red ink!) sometimes beating the odds is not easy.

But if you hang in there and stick with the plan, turnaround is a much better prospect for you than it is for 99.99% of gamblers out there.

What you will see in that list, over on the right, is yet more confirmation that winning more when you win etc. is the engine of Pattern Betting and (presumably) all other cool-headed, logical challenges to games with a house advantage.

I see from Google analytics that lately Singapore has become the #1 souce of hits for this blog!

What's that about, I wonder?  Is it one person reading every spit and cough going back to 2009, or is there a group of baccarat hotshots checking me out mob-handed?  Guess I will never know!

I am reminded of a story I have told a few times about a group of doctor buddies who once used to almost empty the dealer's chip tray at the baccarat salle at the old Flamingo Hilton in Reno, NV on a Saturday afternoon.

They would pitch up for a late lunch after a morning's golf, and it was clear to the dealer who told me the tale that they worked together to beat the odds, getting ahead of the house almost every week.

They bet progressively but did not overdo it--they spread the load among their group so that no individual stood out too much, and week after week, their pockets were heavier when they left, not always but more often than not.

Random betting cannot make that happen.  Except on YouTube, perhaps...

Late update: BWP Shoe #238, third and last for today, plus session summaries for the current month.

 

Notice how many sessions ended with more bets lost than won but more money won than lost and remember that the only way you can do that is if you (sing along with me!)...win more when you win than you lose when you lose.

It's the arithmetic! 

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against an online "casino" maybe spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.

You can show a gambler the facts, but you can't make him or her give a damn! (Unless he or she actually wants to win).

 

The new Pattern Betting gambling info channel on YouTube is starting to attract a little attention, but I am not holding my breath--for years, I have been saying here that less than 1% of recreational gamblers actually want to win, and those that do are often reluctant to embrace new ideas.

Pattern betting (or Target/Turnaround as I prefer to call it when there's room for a few extra words!) is not really a dramatic breakthrough but an adaptation of progressive betting that greatly reduces risk and improves long-term viability.

Regular readers will know my mantra about winning more when you win than you lose when you lose to offset the harm that can be done by losing more bets than you win (an inevitability) but in YouTube country, no one seems to understand that if you don't bet progressively, you are certain to lose in the end.

I have been particularly absorbed by the antics of a hugely popular live-stream gambler who plays like an absolute idiot, has no betting strategy whatsoever, moans endlessly about his piss-poor luck, but somehow attracts a regular audience in the hundreds of thousands.

Am I jealous of his success?  Well, I know I would be if he was winning, but instead his schtick is to throw huge junks of cash at some of the worst betting options around, perhaps to persuade suckers who are watching to join him on the clifftop and jump along with him, and I can't watch his regular car crashes for too long at one time.

My connection with Baccarat WinPro got nowhere, because much as I enjoy their sim and the analysis tools they provide, I am not about to maintain a paid subscription when I have plastered free publicity all over the place for them!

No damage, because along the way I discovered a new source called BNB Simulation, a YT channel which has an archive of tens of thousands of shoes of baccarat and also offers real-time play against an impressive simulation.  The only downside is the constant distraction of ads, but we all need to make a living!

And of course, there's always the Wizard of Odds baccarat sim, which, fickle as I am, I abandoned when I discovered BWP.

I started this week by playing three Wiz shoes in succession and recording the results to post on the Pattern Betting channel, and it was something of a surreal experience--three fat wins in a row, each for the same amount, $2,700.  It amounted to a profit of $8,100 in less than an hour!

As regular readers here will know, two key Target/Turnaround rules that keep danger at bay to a high degree are 3-play and the fallback to a minumum bet after a win target is met.

I have also found a new way to describe something I have been recommending here forever--the notion that if you are getting your butt kicked with no end apparently in sight, you just take up thy chips and walk to a different game, always making sure that you resume play at the same betting level so that turnaround remains do-able.

Now, I call it the GAG rule, short for get-up-and-go (sorry, but GUAG doesn't do it for me!).

Let's face it, sometimes you will encounter a run of bad luck that makes you want to GAG in more senses than one...

The BNB shoes, all of them verifiable online, are now fed into an Excel model which enables me to rerun each data set betting solely on Player at first, then only on Banker, then using win-before-last, which the French fancify as 'avant dernier' and which I prefer to call the Wobble using the acronym for win before last.

It makes for interesting info, for me at least, for several thousand blog readers, and for the handful of folks who have found me at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDgiBe3I2xfS93Bg7nHW9EA! 

 

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this.