The more you try to play it safe, the more likely you are to fail. The casinos know that, and it's a lesson players need to learn!

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This just in from the Lilliputian world of one-thumb blackjack...



I ran a couple of random checks between shuffles and discovered no repeats in the single-deck game.

That, I guess, explains why the iPod app is recommended as a handy practice tool for card-counters.

In my experience, counting cards can be helpful as long as Ed Thorp's rules are largely ignored.

Prof. Thorp recommends tying the bet value to the deck value, so that a +8 count would call for a bet 8x the minimum.

I gave counting an extensive trial back in the early '80s and found it more trouble than it was worth.

It's a "rock and a hard place" method that, in my experience, creates more problems than it solves.

It is important to avoid detection as a counter by pit personnel, because in Nevada, at least, you can be barred from a casino for winning "too much."

You can also be barred in Nevada for breathing too much air under a casino's roof, or for any other reason that takes a game operator's fancy, since gambling in the Silver State is regulated to protect the state's interests, not the players'.

At what was then the MGM Grand in Reno, I watched a gentleman of evident Oriental extraction (or extinction as my late Aunt Betty would have it) bet $5 against a neutral or negative deck, and $500 when the deck became fractionally "rich" in fat cards.

He played for maybe 15 minutes before he was led away, but soon after dismissing him as an idiot, I had second thoughts: he was probably at least $1,000 ahead before he was shown the exit, and if he had played "sensibly" it might have taken him an hour or two to make that much money.

And even in Reno, there are plenty of casinos ripe for the plucking.

Never, ever, underestimate players from the Far East: they are a smart bunch, although the gent I watched in action was certainly far from inscrutable.

My problem with counting is that when the deck is "rich" it helps the dealer about as much as it does the player, unless said player is willing to quickly reveal his tactics.

Let's say you have drawn 16 with your first two cards, the deck value is +5, and the dealer has a 7 up.

You know that a hit is likely to bust you, and also that the dealer's hole card is probably a 10, costing you your bet.

If you stand after placing a bet 5x your minimum, you will be yelling "I'm a card counter!!!" in the dealer's ear. If you take a hit, you will lose your bet.

Tough call...

I once spent an enjoyable evening in downtown Las Vegas with a card counter named George Williams, who believed (as I do) that greed is as dangerous for a gambler as ignorance or inebriation.

George bet a modest $25 when the deck was neutral or positive (we only played at single-deck tables) and $5 otherwise, and he did very well without attracting attention.

He told me that he was working with Ed Thorp on a counting method for baccarat. I have heard nothing about that since, maybe because the project was a huge success and everyone involved was sworn to secrecy.

Wooooooshhhhh...There goes another flying pig!

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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