"Proof of wins is meaningless. Anyone can win once in a while. All that matters is that when your system loses, it loses BIG!"

_
I cannot over emphasize how important it is that anyone interested in learning the principles of target betting should not take my word for anything.

Gamblers are too ready to believe whatever they are told, but this blog is not aimed at them.

My audience (I hope!) consists of smart people who enjoy playing casino table games but do not consider that losing at them is inevitable.

They are not gamblers. They are players. And believe me, there is a big difference.

I was asked some time ago about the viability of a $100,000 target betting bankroll against baccarat, and my response was that while it stands a pretty good chance of making a steady profit, I would not recommend it.

I said that because target betting is not about taking chances. Its objective is to win, and the likelihood of success depends not on luck but on optimal use of available resources.

The switches or settings - the rules - of target betting each play a vital role in helping us towards our long-term goal, but only one of them is absolutely indispensable, and that is the LTD+ response to a mid-recovery win.

Even that can be modified to lessen potential strain on a limited bankroll, but once we start doing that, we need to be aware that recovery may take longer and deliver a smaller profit.

Last time, I introduced the acronym WYNN for "watch your negative numbers," and while I intended to poke a little fun at the best-known casino operator on the planet, the message was absolutely serious.

Most of the models displayed in past posts show a bankroll of $1 million and a win capability of at least $1,000 an hour at blackjack (less at baccarat because James Bond's favorite game pays even money at best).

Trimming money-making tactics necessarily cuts into anticipated revenue while reducing risk somewhat, and that requires a significant reduction in the "bust" limit, from a cool million to $250,000 or less.

After all, a 75% drop in the rate of return is only acceptable if it also permits a proportionate cut in the risk, or "level of investment."

I am generally inclined to the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" point of view, but I do recognize that it is easier to say (or type) the words one million dollars than it is to put the indicated sum into play in a casino.

All of the models in my database are available to anyone who asks nicely to see them, and very few indicate a level of exposure greater than 50% of the notional bankroll.

With all target betting's bells and whistles clanging and shrieking, an exposure of 10% or less is not uncommon, and the strategy wins at such a rapid clip that the initial investment quickly becomes a distant memory.

The whole idea of target betting is to build resources as efficiently as possible, because as the bankroll gets fatter, the chances of long-term failure diminish.

What my critics refuse to accept is that human beings do not play like the mindless robots that are at the heart of any computer game simulation.

An excess of caution can often be more dangerous than outright recklessness, but a skilled player develops intuition that becomes more reliable as time goes by.

Personally, I can never prove that the dealer who shakes his or her head as I approach a blackjack table, warning me away from a current "hot" streak, will have actually saved me any grief. But I certainly appreciate the friendly thought, and very rarely ignore it.

So it is with a negative trend that was not preceded by a red flag waving: If it feels right, I will move before I reach my predetermined spread limit, and I certainly will not stick around past that point.

The argument that in the long run, "damage control" stands less than a 50-50 chance of escaping potentially deadly playing conditions and leading to a quicker recovery is deliberately and cynically specious.

And the claim that improved conditions were just as likely to have come along if the player had stayed put and taken his punishment like a man is irrelevant: table limits are a reality, and where they are not a factor, a target bettor has his own rules to follow.

The arithmetic tells us that no one, however clever or lucky he may be, can escape the effects of the house advantage in the long run.

In terms of wins vs. losses, with the latter inevitably expressed by a larger number than the former, that is true and it is foolish to believe otherwise.

And it follows that anyone who bets fixed sums or determines the value of his wagers randomly must in the end lose more money than he wins as a consequence of losing more bets than he wins.

It must then also be true that for the fixed-sum or random punter, damage control will over time prove to be pointless, because it can have no effect on the overall percentage value of the house edge.

Target betting succeeds against the house edge and the dire expectation it entails because dramatic win-loss pattern (WLP) swings in the house's favor are not the norm.

And as long as the target player has not yet reached his maximum bet value, he will be able to recover all his prior losses in far fewer winning bets than the number of "wrong" wagers it took to gobble up the chips that were temporarily sucked into the dealer's tray.

Even when his "max" has been reached, the target player has "the math" on his side.

Usually, the house needs a sustained advantage of at least 25% in order for a target bettor's bankroll to be seriously threatened, and a negative trend that is a dozen or more times greater than expectation for the game cannot last indefinitely.

That is why a strong bankroll is an essential weapon against the house. It will not be needed often, but like the big guns on a battleship, it needs to be there just in case.

None of this means that it is possible for a wealthy player to simply "buy the pot."

Money is very useful in a casino, sometimes even essential. But money alone will not guarantee a long-term win, as many a misbegotten high roller can testify.

Money and a plan...now that's a winning combination. As long as the plan is target betting.

So, to get back to the opening point of this post (and to repeat the advice in the blog's introduction), don't take my word for the value of target betting.

Learn the rules, and test them in your own time against games of your choice.

You can be sure of losing more bets than you win.

But you will still make money, even if the chips are not real.

Let's face it, if the house cannot win in spite of raking in your cash more frequently than it has to pay you off, the house has a problem.

You don't. And that is all that matters.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
_