"Negative" is a word that frequently crops up in discussions about gambling and how to win, and the axiom is that negative expectation must eventually have negative results.
It's nonsense.
The truth is that the house advantage at casino games of chance can be the player's good friend, because the baseline percentage value can never be large enough to make winning impossible.
Casinos would be happy to offer games with a house advantage far greater than blackjack's +/- 1.0% or even roulette's 5.26%, and sometimes it seems not a day goes by without some new "side bet" appearing on table layouts to tempt easy money from players who can't or won't do the math.
The gambling industry knows, however, that winners play a critical role in their business. Why? Because games that could not be beaten would very quickly run out of suckers.
Casinos rely on the fact that most players are unconcerned about odds: they just want to be able to win once in a while, so they won't feel foolish. The only way that can happen is if the house edge is kept in check (usually less than 1.5% at mega-money games such as baccarat and blackjack).
Because of the random nature of all games, the house edge will sometimes tip far above the known expectation of 1.0% or whatever, a negative trend that will occur only a little more frequently than an opposite pattern.
Especially interesting to me is the fact that most players will bet more during a losing streak than they will against a winning one, making it almost impossible for them to "get out of the hole" when a prolonged negative trend is finally over.
It stands to sense (and simple arithmetic) that flat or random betting against negative expectation is more likely to lose than to win. So the only alternative to losing long term is a disciplined method of money management that minimizes the damage from losing trends and maximizes the profit from a positive pattern.
In two words: progressive betting. In two better words: target betting.
The casinos and their house-trained "experts" work very hard to make sure that the words above are perceived as dirty ones.
That's because progressive betting consistently upsets "the math" for the house, repeatedly and indefinitely enabling the player to make money in spite of losing more bets than he wins.
Obviously, you will never see those proliferating side bets I mentioned earlier flagged with signs warning players "Don't waste your money, this is a seriously dumb bet."
And for the same reason, people who bet stupidly without taking the trouble to learn the game they are playing are never taken aside and given helpful advice on how to protect and conserve their bankroll.
The only way you will ever prompt a lecture on odds and optimum play from pit personnel is if you are spotted betting a progression. (Please see the comments at left under the heading, "An easy way to test the lie that progressive betting can't win").
If you want the house to love you to bits, showering you with sundry "comps" to induce you not to go next door or across the street, bet randomly within a very tight spread (1-5 is standard for most weekend punters), and keep telling yourself that losing is fun.
If you want to win, do as I tell you!
Here are numbers from the latest BST blackjack attack...
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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