A Sethbets real-time trial update, and some credit where credit is due...

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The ongoing real-time trial applying Target rules to short odds underdogs started its 10th month this week, and established a new high-dollar mark yesterday.

There's a quick visual update below, and more information at the website.

I don't see how after all this time anyone can have any doubt that backing dogs within a tight odds range is a far better bet than following the herd and chasing negative paybacks (less than even money) on favorites.

But most punters are happily stuck in their ways, and we have to respect their right to choose.



And now for something completely different...

A few months back, I spared no effort in lambasting Bodog for a blackjack game that was clearly crooked, with a house edge exceeding 60% overall and an algorithm that handed out wins on small bets but snatched bigger wagers in dealer streaks that were beyond suspicious.

We all know that in small samples, the predicted house edge for any table game is meaningless and wild swings in either direction are common.

But the longer you play, the more likely it is that negative expectation will match the known HA of 1.0% or less.

It's often said that anyone who risks real money in an online "casino" deserves to lose, and that may be true.

But when an online operation promotes itself as King of the Hill, it seems reasonable to expect fair play.

There is, of course, no way that Bodog or any of its competitors can rip off a sports bettor, aside from refusing to pay out on wins and vanishing into the virtual ether.

But games of chance presume a degree of trust, and in my experience, Bodog blew it.

I told myself that in future I'd stick to bets on outcomes that are a part of the public record, and stay away from ventures vulnerable to Bodog-style skulduggery.

But then a friend tipped me off to table games offered by an outfit called 5Dimes.

I have been very cautious in easing back into what may yet prove to be another snake-pit, but I have tracked every one of hundreds of bets in the past few days.

And I have to give credit where it's due and congratulate 5Dimes on playing it as straight as any of the "land-based" casinos in my neighborhood.

They have some pretty quirky "casino" offerings: reverse commission on Pai-Gow Poker and 3x paybacks on both 2 and 12 in the field at craps, for example.

But when I'm not backing underdogs, Target-style, blackjack is my favorite way of passing the time and hopefully making a few bucks.

I am not, as a casino shill called the Wizard of Odds would have it, a sore loser. I expect to lose about as often as I win, and rely on consistent money management to make me a modest profit along the way.

I also rely on the casinos I frequent to offer games that are honest and above board, a concept that perhaps escapes the Wiz and his sponsors at Bodog!

This is not, I promise you all, an ad for 5Dimes.

I just felt that having blasted Bodog, I am obliged to give the nod to a competitor with higher standards.

This is also an expression of profound relief that somewhere online, a fair game can be found.

I am sure there are others, but I doubt I will spend any time looking for them - sports betting long ago eclipsed table games, as far as I am concerned.

Bet randomly or emotionally or get greedy when things are going right, and 5Dimes will beat you, as it expects to beat the majority of players, however straight the game.

Most players play badly, remember, and beat themselves without needing an extra push over the edge by a crooked "dealer"!

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

We're in a new slump, facing the same old question: Do we bet "cautiously" and go broke, or do we stick with the Target rules and turn things around?

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This just posted to the www.sethbets.com website:

With Thursday's relatively large loss (over $11,000), we are now in the middle of the fourth major slump to hit us since the real-time trial began last July 24.

Whenever our upward momentum slows and the roller-coaster takes us into a scary dip, the same people react the same way, with advice that we have to "protect the bankroll" and back off, perhaps by abandoning the line that is (for now) dragging all the other lines down.

The truth is that panic and an excess of caution are exactly what the bookies expect of us.

You cannot protect the bankroll by reducing bets to a level at which recovery becomes a mathematical impossibility.

And if you "spread the load" by relying on multiple bets to offset the losses, you will need to be very lucky indeed to avoid delaying recovery indefinitely.

The old Las Vegas cliche scared money never wins describes the dilemma perfectly. Abandoning a seemingly doomed line is always an option, but if you do it once you will be obliged to make a habit of it, and whatever profits you may have achieved will soon dribble away.

I often quote a good friend who I call "Peter Punter" and he recently supplied me with a perfect case history of a cautious but fatally flawed betting strategy that cost him winnings that took months to accumulate.

He thinks the Target Betting method is "too risky" but time and again, he sets aside a few thousand for a new assault on sports betting, wins for a while, then gets blitzed by precisely the kind of slump that we are in the middle of.

This time, he was sitting pretty until seven successive losses wiped him out. A day or two after his bankroll was annihilated, the handicapper who was the source of all his selections hit a three-bet winning streak.

If Pete had followed the Target method, he'd be at a new high right now. Instead, he's out of the game. Until next time, when he will probably repeat the process.

I feel particularly frustrated right now, because for the sake of partners who are almost as risk-averse as poor, broke Pete, I applied a conservative modification to the Target rules, running it alongside the regular rules in my daily bulletins.

Because of that, we missed a classic turnaround situation at the beginning of this week, and now we're headed south in a slump that will probably end soon (they usually do!) but will in any event have proved to be a much bigger threat to the BR than if I had refused to apply so-called protection.

It's no one's fault but mine: I could easily have said NO. But I'm not in this thing alone!

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._

The reality of Target Betting since July 24th, 2010...

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From the Sethbets website:

Summary posted April 1st, 2011: March was a great month for Target, rewarding the highest risk to date with the biggest monthly win since this trial began last summer. We're now ahead $131,630 deducting the original $5,000 investment from the current BR, and the profit is our "hold" of action of $1.21 million on 2,418 bets - an average win of $588 a day vs. an average bet value of $501. Staying more than one average bet ahead of the game each and every day isn't bad. The bookies' edge for the data set is 8.4% but our win represents 10.9% of overall action, indicating that Target has turned negative expectation upside down and created a long-term player advantage. The average win value to date is $638 vs. an average loss value of $439, which is how we managed to beat the bad guys: We won 45% more when we won than we lost when we lost in spite of the fact that every math "expert" out there will tell you that it isn't possible to do that unless you know ahead of the game that you're going to win. I'll say it again (because I love hearing it): It takes balls to beat the bookies, but not crystal ones. You all get bet schedules ahead of game times every day, so you know what I know, and what I know is that I can't be sure of anything until finals are in. We don't win every day by any means (116 up days and 107 down days in 223 betting days since last July 24), but I'd say a $130,000 return on a $5,000 investment is acceptable. Now for April...

Seth

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._