You'll almost always lose more bets than you win, and bigger bets won't put you ahead of the game. But smarter bets will make you a winner.

_
(For current information about Target's ongoing sports betting experiment, please go to the Sethbets website)


It's been quite a while since I last sat down for a Target session against Ken Smith's blackjack simulation, and I had almost forgotten how vastly superior it is to most of what's out there.

And I say that not just because the program permits me to run up "winnings" like those above - like any other game with long-term negative expectation, this version of blackjack (I always select an eight-deck shoe) can sometimes be pretty tough to beat.

The beauty of BST is not just that it "deals" from an actual deck or shoe, with dealt cards staying out of play until the next shuffle, but that it is fast, fair and accurate.

As always, the win shown here is not offered as proof of anything, just as an indication of what can be achieved when prejudices and preconceptions are set aside and a smart strategy is consistently applied.

Money alone will not beat casino table games - any number of "beached" whales who believed their big bucks could buy the pot can attest to that (whales being the term they use in Vegas to describe players with a lot more money than sense!).

It isn't how you play that makes you a winner, it's how you bet. And bigger is only better if the number you are talking about is the spread between your smallest and largest bet values.

Blackjack is the only table game in which a player's decisions can materially affect his or her outcome, and that's why it boasts more "experts" than all the alternatives.

But the truth is that knowing when to hit, split, double-down or stand pat is of infinitely less significance in the long run than knowing how much to bet and when.

Dumb moves - yours or someone else's - might hurt the hand you're playing right now, but as long as you bet correctly, you can easily offset short-term setbacks and come out a winner at the end of the day.

Basic strategy's most important advice covers splits and double-downs, because you can expect to win 60% of those.

But even that won't help you if the right bet isn't on the table at the right time.

You should start by assuming that you will win, not the opposite.

And you should also be fully aware that the smaller your bankroll and the tighter your betting spread, the more likely it is that you'll be a loser.

Casinos everywhere are built - literally - on shoestring bankrolls that could not survive relatively brief and always temporary losing trends.

Table limits exist partly to encourage narrow betting spreads, although since most gamblers think they are being very daring if they bet $100 at a $10 table, their purpose is primarily to thwart progressive bettors.

How-to books and websites that concern themselves with odds and stats don't matter a damn when it comes down to the bottom line.

Sure, you need to know which casino options are the least likely to empty your wallet, and understanding the rules of the available games doesn't hurt.

But all that counts for nothing if you don't have enough money on hand to bet as much as you need to bet when you need to bet it.

I keep singing the same old song, I know, but given all the disinformation out there, finding an audience to hum along with me can be hard sometimes!

Here's some good advice: If you can't afford to win, don't play.

I'll take that any day over Never lose more than you can afford.

I concern myself primarily with blackjack and baccarat when I make a trip to the bank (the word I prefer to use in place of casino!) because games with a house edge below 2.0% are usually easier to beat than the high-vig alternatives.

Both those card games have a rhythm or a pattern that Target very successfully exploits, which is why very often, a single win is all you need to recover prior losses and start over with a minimum bet.

For example, my Bodog and BST blackjack sessions have so far consisted of 1,060 series averaging five bets in length.

(If you have come late to the party, a series starts with a minimum bet and ends when prior losses have been recovered, plus a modest EOS or end-of-series profit).

It helps to know that more than two-thirds (68%) of those series wrapped at or below the average, 60% of them were in profit in four bets, and almost half (46%) came in at three or two bets (there is of course no such animal as a one-bet series!).

That tells us that doubling your bet after a loss is a pretty smart move, at least for a while.

But then there's the problem that dealers are constantly on the look-out for so-called Martingale bettors - and they don't like them one bit.

Target does just fine if the only rule you apply kicks in after a mid-series win with a bet equal to prior losses for the current series, plus a little bit.

No one data set can ever be exactly the same as any other, obviously, but for my latest blackjack sessions, dropping all the Target bells and whistles and sticking with the core rule woulda cut the number of completed series from 1,060 to 890 while reducing the overall win by more than half and total action by about 45%.

Any data set of reasonable size (500 rounds or so) will confirm that trend.

My new baccarat sample has about 1,000 more rounds and so more series completions: 1,265 with all the recommended Target rules in play.

The bear-bones modification has a similar effect: the EOS number drops to 982 (78%), and the final win and action numbers take about a 50% hit.

Don't let anyone convince you that casino games are random and unpredictable.

You can't know the outcome of the next bet, obviously, but very little changes from one data sample to the next in the long run

That, of course is what the house relies on.

All the different games are just different ways to set the hook, then reel in your dough.

Some fish like worms, others prefer flies, or eggs or power bait or spinners. You picks your poison, then you "make your contribution" - that's the way it is for most gamblers.

But why be a loser - a fish flapping on the riverbank - when you don't have to be?

Then again, a feeling of total invincibility would be as bad for you as greed is for the rest of the herd.

It's best to know and respect what you're up against and to let discipline and confident consistency guide your every move.

That's what Target is all about.

Luck cannot factor into your relationship with the house, because it will be with the bad guys just a little more often than it's with you.

Your concern is making sure that you never allow yourself to be in a situation where two (or, at worst, three) consecutive wins won't get you out of trouble.

It's not always easy to play with that kind of confidence, along with the money to back it up.

But as time goes by and as your bankroll grows, it gets easier.

Here's another screen shot from Ken Smith's BST app.


The story is even sadder than it looks: Against a relentless house edge that ended up at 11.3% overall, the $5 to $1,000 "house limit" required me to buy in to the tune of $40,000 before I finally threw in the towel.

Does that prove that Target is a failure?

Absolutely not, because in real play I would never fight on with a crippling 1 to 200 spread limit.

Know this: When the data set from this session (hand outcomes without bet values) were plugged into a spreadsheet that "played" real Nevada table limits, Target came out an 11% winner thanks to twinned wins that showed up 32 times between the point at which the bet cap was reached and the end of the session.

Any one of those win combos would have meant recovery if the table limit had been circumvented by simply moving to another layout or a different game with a higher cap.

Successful splits and double-downs, along with the usual 4% sprinkling of naturals, softened the final house edge from the number indicated by the Smith app's summary to 7.14% - still more than 7x negative expectation for the game.

In even the toughest casino game (roulette at -5.26% is a strong contender) paired wins are a frequent occurrence.

Trouble is, most players don't notice them.

And those that do have no idea how to make the most of them.

Almost everyone who gambles follows the behavior pattern that the casinos rely on: Limited resources, a tight betting spread, and a tendency to stay put and stick it out when things start to go badly.

If your next bet after a mid-series win will exceed the table limit, never be afraid to turn tail and run.

The usual rhythm of most games calls for short skirmishes and relatively quick turnarounds.

Damage control isn't cowardice, it's common sense.

The mythematicians out there who work so hard to bolster the casinos' message that winning is impossible in the long run so learn how to love losing always argue that any defensive response to a downturn must ultimately prove futile.

The only way to prove them wrong is to keep winning.

And if all you get out of early flight from a "cold" layout is a boost to your morale, that's good enough.

Any minute now, twinned wins will show up, and you'll be back in the chips. Count on it.

An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you. One more piece of friendly advice: If you are inclined to use target betting with real money against online "casinos" such as Bodog, spend a few minutes and save a lot of money by reading this._